A Look At Nolan Arenado’s Comeback Year

Back in January, the Diamondbacks acquired Nolan Arenado from the Cardinals with the hope that he’d provide veteran stability at the hot corner as they made a run at a Wild Card. The latter didn’t happen, of course, but it was through no fault of Arenado. The 35-year-old wound up authoring a decent comeback campaign after a prolonged offensive downturn from 2023-25 with the Cardinals.

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk broke down Arenado’s hot start earlier this year. Through the end of May, he was batting .269/.350/.451 through an even 200 plate appearances, running a 19.0% strikeout rate and 9.0% walk rate that were both better than average, as well as a 121 wRC+. Over a full season, that would have been Arenado’s highest mark since 2022, when he finished third in NL MVP voting behind then teammate Paul Goldschmidt and the Padres’ Manny Machado.

Naturally, Arenado followed the hot start with his worst month of the season in June. He took 106 trips to the plate but only batted .196/.255/.299 en route to a 53 wRC+, which meant that he was 47% worse than the average hitter. That lowered his overall output to a below-average 97 wRC+, and it seemed as if Arenado was due to continue his long-term decline.

He bounced back somewhat in July and August, albeit with low batting averages and relying more on his power than usual. By the end of August, Arenado was batting .238/.312/.429 overall and back up to a 103 wRC+. That was certainly better than his 84 wRC+ with St. Louis in 2025, but it rang as more of a mild, late-career bounce back than a true return to form. Injuries may have played a role in that. Arenado underwent an MRI for a torso injury in mid-August, though he only ended up missing two days.

Let’s just say the month of September was very kind to him. As the Diamondbacks tried to hold on for the Wild Card, Arenado turned on the jets and began hitting like peak Aaron Judge. He batted .349/.432/.723 over his last 95 plate appearances and belted nine of his 30 home runs on the season. Arizona’s season ended with the Phillies’ win over Tampa Bay in Game 162, while Arenado finished with an overall line of .255/.331/.475, 86 runs batted in, a 20.0% strikeout rate, an 8.7% walk rate, and a 120 wRC+. FanGraphs credited him with 3.5 wins above replacement for his efforts.

Arenado is under contract for next year at a $15MM salary, as noted in our Payroll Tracker. Arizona is only on the hook for $6MM of that, as the Cardinals are picking up the rest. It would be a blessing for the Diamondbacks if Arenado could continue his renaissance in 2027 at such an affordable price. The team is expected to reduce payroll while still adding at first base, DH, and probably the rotation as well. Keeping Arenado healthy and productive for his age-36 season would ensure third base doesn’t get added to the list of needs.

There are some warning signs under the surface. Despite bouncing back by wRC+, Arenado ran career lows in average exit velocity (85.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (31.2%). Those metrics ranked in just the third and 14th percentiles, respectively, according to Statcast. Meanwhile, Arenado’s .231 expected batting average was well below his actual .255 mark, and the same was true of his power output. He slugged .475 overall, but xSLG put his true ability around .366, right in line with 2025.

Arenado wasn’t hitting the ball hard, and he was also noticeably more pull-happy than usual. He pulled 52.2% of balls in play, up from a more typical 44.7% in 2025. Perhaps he was trying to ward off declining bat speed by swinging earlier and pulling the ball rather than going to all fields, like he did earlier in his career. Either way, Arenado did plenty of damage against fastballs (+13 Run Value), sliders (+7), and sinkers (+4) this year, but he struggled against sweepers (-4).

A look at Arenado’s Statcast page shows an awful lot of blue. He graded out above average in Batting Run Value (+23) and strikeout rate (20.0%, which is a career high). He was valued around average in whiff rate and negatively in everything else. With those kinds of questions in his batting profile, it’s likely that Arenado’s extreme gaps in actual and expected power will normalize next year, and Arenado will be unable to fully repeat his 2026 performance.

At the very least, he remains a competent defender at third. While no longer the perennial Gold Glove threat he was during his Colorado prime, Arenado was still worth +2 Outs Above Average at the hot corner this year. Defensive Runs Saved wasn’t as optimistic, valuing him at -4, while Statcast still put him in the 61st percentile of Fielding Run Value.

The D-backs will are hoping that Arenado ages more gracefully than he appeared to over his 2023-25 swoon. If he can hit somewhere between those numbers and this year’s on-the-surface bounce back while still fielding a competent third base, he’ll still be a decent value for the Diamondbacks as they look to retool in 2027.