Aaron Judge Losing Ground in MVP Showdown With One Month Left

A month from today, the regular season will be over. And what once looked like Aaron Judge’s march to a second straight MVP has turned into one of the wildest races in recent memory.

The Yankees’ captain still has the numbers. He’s hitting .337/.446/.691 with an OPS north of 1.130, leading the American League in runs scored and ranking at the top of almost every advanced metric. His walk rate is up, his strikeouts are down, and his overall value, a WAR over seven, puts him in the middle of another historic season.

Even with the elbow injury that’s kept him out of the outfield, Judge has been the most consistent hitter in the league.

But Cal Raleigh has changed the conversation.

The Mariners’ catcher has become the power story of the summer. With 50 home runs before the end of August, Raleigh set a record for his position and gave Seattle a middle-of-the-order force no one expected. He’s not hitting for average (.245), but the slugging is real, and so is the workload of catching nearly every day while driving an offense that’s fighting for a playoff spot.

Judge has the edge in the rate stats. Raleigh has the headline numbers — 50 homers, big RBI totals, and the shock factor of a switch-hitting catcher slugging like Mickey Mantle.

That’s why the betting lines have tilted his way in recent weeks.

The AL MVP battle is officially too close to call. ESPN Bet reports that Aaron Judge is slightly behind Cal Raleigh at –105, making Raleigh a hair stronger at the moment

For Judge, the path is clear. Keep producing at the elite clip he’s carried all season and let the Yankees’ playoff run amplify it. For Raleigh, it’s about staying hot and keeping the Mariners in the postseason picture.

It’s not the MVP race anyone predicted back in April. But as September begins, it might be the most intriguing in baseball.