Aaron Judge vs Top Picks Fantasy 2026

With the proliferation of stolen bases, many fantasy baseball players changed their strategies to focus less on stolen bases as there were a lot of players who would steal bases, you get them from everyone. Very few players not playing catcher or named Correa don’t steal a few bases.

In 2023, Major League Baseball made drastic changes that affected stolen bases.  The added a pitcher timer to make pitchers throw to the plate faster and gave hitters limited “time outs”.  They also only allowed a pitcher two “disengagements” with the rubber during an at-bat, leading to an advantage for savvy runners.

We outlined how to get steals without overpaying.  That allows you to take a player like Judge with your first pick.

Judge’s 2025 Injury, Age & Outlook

For the last two years, Aaron Judge has been mainly healthy compared to much of his career.  What that means is that he had only one DL trip and then when he returned, the Yankees were forced to place Giancarlo Stanton into the outfield when both players played as Judge was relegated to DH only duties for the month of August. His right elbow flexor strain did not require off-season surgery, but more DH at-bats is likely.

His right elbow flexor strain did not require off-season surgery, but more DH at-bats is likely.

Age-33 Durability Factors

Age matters. Older players always lose some power and a lot of speed. In the chart below, Aaron Judge is one of two players who were 32 years old last season and hit 30+ home runs.

2026 Fantasy Projections for Judge

Figuring out Aaron Judge is all about health. Can he stay healthy? In recent seasons, he has played with nagging injuries and the Yankees have been more willing to do that.

When people go to a Yankee game, they are paying to see Aaron Judge play. The front office knows that and even at DH, he is a draw and needs to be in the lineup.

Realistic Stat Line

When determining the realistic line item for Aaron Judge, you need to think about health.  It is all about staying on the field.  He leads the league in all the metrics that measure power except for launch angle.  He has decided that hitting .320+ is more important than 5-10 more home runs.

If you look at Judge’s barrel rate, you will see that it has been between 24-28% in each of the last four years, even in seasons he got hurt.  The average is 7%.  His exit velocity averages 95+ MPH.  His average launch angle is 19.  The league average is 11.  This is what makes power.

Let’s do a little exercise to prove his dominance…let’s look at projections for at-bats, starting with his least since he was full time to his most. Let’s assume he bats .315 since he is a year older:

• 375 at-bats: 35 HRs, 85 runs batted in, 85 runs scored, 1 stolen base
• 475 at-bats: 45 HRs, 110 runs batted in, 115 runs scored, 5 stolen bases
• 575 at-bats: 53 HRs, 130 runs batted in, 125 runs scored, 7 stolen bases

This is why he is a safe power option. His worst year at his age is better than all but two players as far as home runs and they are both in the National League (Schwarber and Ohtani).

Category / Rotisserie League Dominance

In Category/Rotisserie leagues, Aaron Judge dominates with a super high batting average .320+ when the league average is .244-.248.  He regularly drives in .85 runs per game and scores almost as many.  Elite counting numbers that only he and Ohtani can achieve on a regular basis.  This kind of category dominance can make you a winner in your Category/Rotisserie Leagues.

Elite counting numbers that only he and Ohtani can achieve on a regular basis. This kind of category dominance can make you a winner in your Category/Rotisserie Leagues.

Points League Value

Not going to say much here.  He dominates in all points leagues and only Ohtani could be better.  Even with injury, you can replace him while he is out and he scores about 4 points per game in most formats on average or over 600 total points.  A level that only 2-3 players a year meet. A level that only 2–3 players a year meet.

2026 Rankings & Draft Position

He is and will be the No. 2 pick in almost all mixed leagues and No. 1 in AL Only leagues. 

Head-to-Head vs. Other Top 2026 Picks

There are three players that potentially could be drafted before Aaron Judge: Shohei Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr. and Juan Soto.  Let’s have a look at these there.

Remember, we are looking from a power protection standpoint, so it makes it hard for a fantasy baseball player who plays the SMART System like I do to differentiate that.

Judge vs. Bobby Witt Jr.

As we chronicled in the article about the fences being moved in at Kauffman Stadium, Bobby Witt's power numbers will go up. His extra base hits and home runs should increase thereby pushing up his batting average to where it was in the 2024 season.

This plus the fact that he plays shortstop makes him a good choice over Aaron Judge.

If I project Bobby Witt’s stats for 2026, I get: .321 batting average with 45 home runs, 100 runs batted in, 120 runs scored and 41 stolen bases. The stolen bases is one fifth of what you need to win that category.

Judge vs. Juan Soto

At 27 years old, coming off two seasons of power and speed, he is more valuable than Aaron Judge. Judge has power, but as we outlined before, he is 33 years old and there will be regression on power to 45 home runs. Soto will be there too.

Soto will steal 40 bases like Witt. Although he is not a shortstop, his health is not in question and actually, his departure from the Yankees before the 2025 season is the single most important thing to Judge’s counting numbers being lower.

If I project Soto’s stats for 2026, I get .275 (xBA was .279), 45 home runs, 115 runs batted in, score 135 runs and steal 40 bases.

The key here is Bo Bichette protecting him instead of a strike out  king nicknamed the Polar Bear.  One is cold for rallies and the other is Dante’s Inferno.

Summary

It is clear that based on the sheer power numbers of barrels, hard hit percentage, launch angle and exit velocity, Aaron Judge is the most sure thing for a power hitter pick in the top 5 draft picks.

That said, if you play a different strategy now that the rules changed to explode stolen bases in 2023, then he is as good a power lock as anyone in the game.

Baseball is Life.

People Also Ask

Is Aaron Judge the safest power bet in 2026 fantasy?
Yes, unmatched HR floor post-recovery.

Aaron Judge’s 2025 injury impact?
Limited games; full recovery expected.

Judge vs. Bobby Witt Jr. fantasy 2026?
Judge safer power; Witt better speed.

Judge vs. Juan Soto fantasy 2026?
Judge higher HR ceiling; Soto elite OBP.

When should you draft Aaron Judge in 2026?
First-round lock for power security.

Judge regression risk in 2026?
Low if healthy; age 33 still prime.