Advanced Stats Answer the Blue Jays Two Biggest Questions

In the starting rotation, we know that Cease and Gausman aren't going anywhere, so how have the other three arms fared? Below you'll see some traditional stats, like ERA, and also their Stuff+ and Location+ grades. Like a lot of advanced metrics, 100 is league average.

According to the data, it seems pretty clear that Lauer is the odd-man out. While Scherzer has a higher ERA, his FIP is a touch lower, and his pitches are looking better, both in terms of stuff and location. Plus, his role as a veteran on this roster is worth something, while Lauer can be slotted back into the bullpen.

None of these three pitchers have options remaining, so whoever ends up removed from the rotation will have to stick on Toronto's 26-man roster, or be subject to waivers.

The question now becomes whether or not Yesavage will be taking the next turn in the rotation, or if Toronto gives him one more rehab start to fine tune things after posting a 7.50 ERA in four outings split between Dunedin and Buffalo. In those 12 innings, he has given up 14 hits, seven walks and holds a 1.77 WHIP.

Who should take the ninth?

Hoffman has been struggling mightily for the past 10 days, giving up a total of seven earned runs across just three total innings spanning four outings. His ERA has gone from 2.35 to 7.59 in that span. His -1.65 WPA also ranks last (356th) among all relief pitchers this season, with Jordan Romano's -1.29 right above him.

The guy that most Blue Jays fans want closing out games right now also tends to be backed by a decent amount of data. Louis Varland's WPA stands at +1.01, which ranks fourth in the game.

Here is how the data looks for every current member of Toronto's bullpen.

In just looking at the FIPs in this group, it would appear as though there will be some brighter days ahead, as only one member of the bullpen has a FIP above four. The reason that it's imperative to make a change in the ninth is that in a tough AL East, every game matters. With the team pitching fairly well overall, you have to make sure to secure the victories in hand.

It's hard to argue against going with Varland, who has a 0.00 ERA, some of the best stuff on the team, and the second-best location grade on the club. It also doesn't hurt his case that on Tuesday when Hoffman had loaded the bases and already given up one run, it was Varland that came in and secured the win for Toronto on one pitch.

Toronto's re-shaped bullpen

While Jays fans may be clamoring for Hoffman to never see the ninth again, his FIP suggests he's in a rough patch, and his stuff, location and strikeout rate have all held in good spots. The idea here could be to move him to the seventh inning, so that if he blows up a little bit then there is still time to come back. Then, just wait for him to find his groove again before thinking about deploying him in the ninth.

If Lauer ends up being the odd-man out in the rotation, he has to remain on the roster, which means that he'd slot into the bullpen. So who would be the one on the move in that case?

Only four members of the bullpen—Varland, Braydon Fisher, Mason Fluharty and Joe Mantiply—have options remaining, so the Blue Jays would presumably be choosing from that group for this roster move. Given that Lauer is a lefty and Mantiply has the second-worst Location+ stat on the club, it could end up being the veteran that is optioned in this scenario.

In a division this unforgiving, the Blue Jays have already squandered their margin for error. Now Toronto has to be decisive and make the tough calls. That means a change in the ninth, and Lauer back in the bullpen.