American League West betting preview

Tampa might have won 100 games to lead the American League last season but it was Houston that made it to the World Series (losing to Atlanta). The Astros are the favorite to win the AL West and that is definitely the sensible choice unless you think ace Justin Verlander might not get his game back. Then things really open up.

Behind Houston are a group of teams that are improved and probably one of the Angels, Mariners, and Rangers is going to get into the playoffs. I think that group will be tightly bunched for most of the season. 

Sorry Oakland, after so many competitive seasons this one is going to be rough. 

Here is a closer look at the American League West.

American League West Winning Odds

• Houston Astros -165
• Los Angeles Angels +400
• Seattle Mariners +450
• Texas Rangers +1600
• Oakland Athletics +2500

Houston Astros

Key Additions: RP Hector Neris, SP Justin Verlander (sort of)
Key Subtractions: SP Zach Greinke, SS Carlos Correa

Slowly but surely Houston is losing the key players from their World Series-winning team. There are still enough around, along with some replacements, that it can put together a good lineup in most games. But the depth isn't there. Losing Correa hurts and the Astros need a strong season from Alex Bregman to help offset the loss. With all the miles Jose Altuve has put on you get a feeling he might fall off the cliff at some point. He is still key too. 

I put Verlander in the acquisition spot because he did not play last season. It is still too early to know what he is going to be this year but if he gets back to form the Astros have one of the best starters in the game. He is a true ace and after that, the younger members of the rotation fit in pretty well. I like Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia but they are not high ceiling guys. The bullpen feels good enough. it is not going to be the reason they win or lose this season. 

The Astros deserve to be the division favorite but I am not sure they should be priced the like they are. Hence, they are not the best bet. 

Los Angeles Angels

Key Additions: SP Noah Syndergaard, RP Archie Bradley
Key Subtractions: SP Alex Cobb, SP Dylan Bundy

Shohei Ohtani won the MVP last year with a season for the ages. It might have led to a lot more wins, too, if Mike Trout had been healthy. Those guys give the Angels a 1-2 punch at the top of the lineup that is hard to match. 3B Anthony Rendon is never going to live up to the big contract they gave him and they need him to be better if the they are going to score with regularity. The Angels are still a few players short of a really good lineup. 

The Angels are short on the mound too, where Ohtani is also the best they have. It is amazing how he can match dominating hitting and pitching performances but I do wonder how many innings they can realistically count on him for. Getting Syndergaard gives them another elite arm with durability issues. After those two you are dealing with a lot of low ceiling arms who are going to be pitching a lot of innings. In the bullpen, Raisel Iglesias is very good but the bridge to get to him is mediocre.

Trout and Ohtani could hit 100 homers between them and this team might still be just a .500 group.  

Seattle Mariners

Key Additions: SP Robbie Ray, 3B Eugenio Suarez, 2B Adam Frazier
Key Subtractions: SP Yusei Kikuchi, SP James Paxton

The Mariners were close to making the playoffs last season. They have spent the offseason looking to improve in several areas. The offense has definitely been pumped up out of necessity. With 3B Kyle Seager retiring, Seattle added Suarez, another power bat. The addition of Frazier adds an on-base guy to the top of the lineup. Unless someone emerges, this lineup it is not up there with the likes of those in the AL East, but they should score a lot more runs than they did last season. 

Swapping Kikuchi for Ray is a definite upgrade. Not only did Ray win the Cy Young last season but his best game is as good as any pitcher in the game. The Mariners might have had better pitching depth last season, however, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out. Seattle was excellent in close games last year. That can be tough to replicate, especially with a bullpen that could easily be up one month and down the next.

Seattle should be able to beat you up with their lineup this season. The Mariners feel better overall but I am not totally sure. 

Texas Rangers (Best Value)

Key Additions: 2B Marcus Semien, SS Corey Seager, SP Jon Gray
Key Subtractions: SP Jordan Lyles

Texas was definitely one of the most active teams this offseason, completely turning over the top of their lineup. I have always thought Seager was overrated and would have not given Semien that long of a deal but there is no doubt they are much improved. They also made a trade with Minnesota to get catcher Mitch Garver. That trio should give them more than 100 homers and the start of a functional offense. 

On the mound, they were not able to do as much but it is very reasonable to expect a change of scenery bump for Gray. Part of it is getting out of Coors Field and also getting out of a situation where there was a lot of negativity around the direction of the team. That does not make Gray an ace but perhaps he has a breakthrough. I am not as high on the return of Martin Perez and those are the two guys they want to lead the rotation. The bullpen is very average so there are going to be a lot of games that might get lost late. 

One team from the group of L.A., Seattle, and Texas is likely to emerge. If you are going to take someone from that group you might as well get the best payoff. That makes Texas a fun play. 

Oakland Athletics

Key Additions: OF Christian Pache
Key Subtractions: 3B Matt Chapman, 1B Matt Olson, SP Chris Bassitt

The A's are definitely in rebuild mode and there looks their teardown isn't complete. They have turned over the corners of their infield and become one of the least intimidating lineups in the process. This is the era of the long ball and they might not have a 20 home run hitter on the team. It is not like they have a lot of speed either. Maybe OF Christian Pache begins to deliver on his prospect status but it is hard to get excited about a hitter likely to hit 9th.

The A's still have 2 strong starters in the rotation in Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. The question is for how long? As long as they are still with the team the A's should be able to avoid the kinds of horrible losing streaks characteristic of last-place teams. Oakland has done nothing to beef-up their bullpen. They want to lose and they want to lose cheap so that is one way to keep payroll down. 

Oakland will steal a few series here and there but nowhere near enough to be relevant in the division.