Looking across the game of baseball, every given night, we are getting treated to a brilliant pitching performance by one of the game’s top arms. Due to the evolution of technology, pitchers have more information at their disposal than ever before, which has leveled the playing field for all different types of pitchers to find success.
With pitchers now utilizing arsenals of optimized pitch shapes, we have seen phenoms burst onto the scene looking more dominant than ever before, as well as veterans finding the best version of themselves much later in their careers.
All of this leads to a wide-open race each year when it comes to the AL and NL Cy Young Awards, as we have not seen a back-to-back winner since prior to the 2022 season. An award that was once dominated by past Cy Young award winners Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw has suddenly been passed around more frequently in recent years.
Looking at the 2025 Cy Young odds, we see a collection of dynamic arms that all have the ability to put together a dominant stretch of a few months to close out the 2025 season as the best pitcher in their league. Who will win MLB’s Cy Young Awards?
Throughout the season, we will continue to update this post with the latest betting odds in both the AL and NL for the Cy Young Award. We will give insight on how these races are unfolding week-over-week, and which players are worth investing in to win the award.
Let’s dive into the odds to see which superstars are making their presence felt so far in the 2025 MLB MVP races. All odds provided are courtesy of BetMGM.
Current Cy Young Award Odds: Top Contenders for 2025
Before we dive a little bit deeper into the races in each respective league, let’s just take a look at the current updated odds from BetMGM in the two Cy Young races.
2025 American League Cy Young Odds
| Player | Team | Current Odds | Last Week’s Odds | Opening Odds | Implied Probability |
| 1. Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers | +150 | +200 | +300 | 40% |
| 2. Hunter Brown | Houston Astros | +400 | +450 | +1000 | 20% |
| 2. Max Fried | New York Yankees | +400 | +450 | +1600 | 20% |
| 4. Garrett Crochet | Boston Red Sox | +450 | +250 | +700 | 18.18% |
| 5. Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers | +1700 | +1600 | +2000 | 5.56% |
| 6. Nathan Eovaldi | Texas Rangers | +2000 | +2500 | +8000 | 4.76% |
| 7. Cole Ragans | Kansas City Royals | +2200 | +2000 | +1000 | 4.35% |
| 8. Pablo Lopez | Minnesota Twins | +2500 | +2500 | +2200 | 3.85% |
| 9. Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners | +3000 | +5000 | +3500 | 3.23% |
Looking at the top of the board for the AL Cy Young race right now, it is pretty clear that four horses have gotten out ahead of the pack. Reigning AL Cy Young Tarik Skubal is still the main favorite, but not far behind is Hunter Brown, Max Fried and Garrett Crochet.
Still only in the middle of May, looking further down the board, there are still some exciting upside plays that could be made on a dark horse that could turn it on with plenty of time left to play. Two-time Cy Young Jacob deGrom is finally healthy and is rearing into form.
One of the preseason favorites in Cole Ragans is seeing his odds climb back, after an early season struggle that he may have already put behind him. This race is still wide-open, a lot more than we can say about the MVP race right now in the American League.
2025 National League Cy Young Odds
| Player | Team | Current Odds | Last Week’s Odds | Opening Odds | Implied Probability |
| 1. Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates | +220 | +220 | +400 | 31.25% |
| 2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto | L.A. Dodgers | +300 | +220 | +2500 | 25% |
| 3. Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies | +500 | +1400 | +800 | 16.67% |
| 4. Hunter Greene | Cincinnati Reds | +500 | +450 | +1000 | 16.67% |
| 5. Logan Webb | SF Giants | +1200 | +1600 | +2500 | 7.69% |
| 6. Kodai Senga | New York Mets | +1400 | +3000 | +3000 | 6.67% |
| 7. Michael King | San Diego Padres | +2000 | +1600 | +2000 | 4.76% |
| 8. Jesus Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies | +2200 | +2000 | +6600 | 4.35% |
| 9. Freddy Peralta | Milwaukee Brewers | +2500 | +4000 | +3000 | 3.85% |
| 10. Nick Pivetta | San Diego Padres | +2500 | +2500 | +5000 | 3.85% |
Similar to the American League Cy Young odds, the NL side looks very similar when it comes to four pitchers who have separated themselves from the pack as early-season favorites.
Still, there are plenty of aces in the National League that have gotten off to great starts who are well in line to run down the Paul Skenes, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Zack Wheeler’s of the world to hang in what is shaping up to be an outstanding NL Cy Young race.
AL Cy Young Odds: American League Favorites
| Player | Team | Current Odds | Last Week’s Odds | Opening Odds | Implied Probability |
| 1. Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers | +150 | +200 | +300 | 40% |
| 2. Hunter Brown | Houston Astros | +400 | +450 | +1000 | 20% |
| 2. Max Fried | New York Yankees | +400 | +450 | +1600 | 20% |
| 4. Garrett Crochet | Boston Red Sox | +450 | +250 | +700 | 18.18% |
While there are a lot of incredible starting pitchers in the game of baseball, it is hard to argue that anyone is truly better than Tarik Skubal is right now.
Skubal is leading what has become a powerhouse in Detroit, as the Tigers have carried over the magic from their Cinderella run to the playoffs last year and built on that momentum to build an early lead in the AL Central.
At this point, it doesn’t seem like anything is going to slow Skubal down, making him the clear favorite to win this award. At the same time, Houston Astros young hurler Hunter Brown is in the middle of a leap to ace-status that could have him in this race all season long.
Brown has pitched to a 1.48 ERA through his first eight starts, and is currently only trailing Max Fried and Tyler Mahle for the league-lead in ERA. Fried owns that mark with a 1.11 ERA through nine starts, as he has been even better than advertised in his first year in pinstripes.
Finally, another ace in a new place is Garrett Crochet, who has hit the ground running in his first year with the Red Sox, currently pitching to a 1.93 ERA in his first nine starts.
Best Bet: Max Fried, New York Yankees
Looking at the three pitchers with similar odds, between Fried, Brown and Crochet, I’d wager my money on Fried right now. The narrative is so good for Fried right now.
The first big signing the Yankees made after missing out on Juan Soto, Fried has filled in for another mega star in Gerrit Cole atop the Yankees rotation.
For Fried to fill those shoes and lead what is currently the best team in baseball, there is going to be a lot of writers who will be moved to reward a veteran who has been in the mix for Cy Youngs before, but has never quite gotten to the mountaintop.
Big-Time Dark Horses for AL Cy Young in 2025
| Player | Team | Current Odds | Last Week’s Odds | Opening Odds | Implied Probability |
| 5. Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers | +1700 | +1600 | +2000 | 5.56% |
| 6. Nathan Eovaldi | Texas Rangers | +2000 | +2500 | +8000 | 4.76% |
| 7. Cole Ragans | Kansas City Royals | +2200 | +2000 | +1000 | 4.35% |
| 8. Pablo Lopez | Minnesota Twins | +2500 | +2500 | +2200 | 3.85% |
| 9. Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners | +3000 | +5000 | +3500 | 3.23% |
Looking through the dark horses to win the AL Cy Young and there is one name that jumps out more than any. The guy who has won this award two times already.
Best Bet: Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers
Jacob deGrom is an absolute wild card in this Cy Young race, as we really don’t know if the 36-year-old can get back to being in the conversation as one of the very best pitchers in baseball. No one was better before his arm started balking during the 2021 season.
Even when pitching through injuries, we saw nothing but excellence from deGrom whenever he toed the rubber in 2022 and 2023. But deGrom has not pitched a full season since his last Cy Young in 2019, when he went back-to-back in the National League.
Now with a surgically repaired elbow, can deGrom last for a full season atop the Rangers rotation, and will he get back to that same level of dominance from the past?
So far, deGrom has pitched to a 2.72 ERA through eight starts. He has not been striking out batters at the same elite rate he did in the past, but if blowing people away less means staying on the mound more, than deGrom could be a sneaky pick to get better and better as the season wears on.
Justin Verlander won a Cy Young coming off Tommy John surgery, so if you are going to bet anyone to do it, bet on another future Hall of Famer.
NL Cy Young Odds: National League Favorites
| Player | Team | Current Odds | Last Week’s Odds | Opening Odds | Implied Probability |
| 1. Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates | +220 | +220 | +400 | 31.25% |
| 2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto | L.A. Dodgers | +300 | +220 | +2500 | 25% |
| 3. Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies | +500 | +1400 | +800 | 16.67% |
| 4. Hunter Greene | Cincinnati Reds | +500 | +450 | +1000 | 16.67% |
Considering the level of fanfare he has gotten since making his debut last season, it is hard to see anyone winning the NL Cy Young but Paul Skenes.
Every start for Skenes is appointment television, and his stuff is as good as anyone in baseball. There is no doubt that a Cy Young award is in Skenes’ future at some point. The question is if that first one will come this year, or if he still has to wait a bit before it’s his time.
While Skenes has been great, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been better, as the 26-year-old is out to remind everyone that he is a phenom in his own right.
Zack Wheeler is the elder statesman in this race, and yet he has never won the award, coming in second place in two of the last four years. Just last week, Wheeler was facing +1400 odds to win the MVP after a month of April where he pitched to a 3.79 ERA. He has settled the ship in two May starts, however, going seven innings each time and allowing just two runs overall.
Best Bet: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
While there’s certainly a case to be made for Zack Wheeler to finally get his Cy Young, or for Yamamoto to sustain his excellent start and prove why he received the largest contract ever for a starting pitcher, but this is still Skenes’ league right now.
Yes, he is only 22 years old, and is still learning how to navigate MLB in his first true wire-to-wire full season in the show. But few pitchers have been more polished at his age.
Also, it’s hard to forget how Skenes ended up running away with 23 of the 30 votes for Rookie of the Year last year, despite a fantastic season from his advisory in the race in Jackson Merrill. Both were deserving of winning the Rookie of the Year, but Skenes got way more support.
If the race is close, Skenes’ popularity could be a deciding factor in this race, so I would not bet on another pitcher if the odds are still this close.
Big-Time Dark Horses for NL Cy Young in 2025
| Player | Team | Current Odds | Last Week’s Odds | Opening Odds | Implied Probability |
| Logan Webb | SF Giants | +1200 | +1600 | +2500 | 7.69% |
| Kodai Senga | New York Mets | +1400 | +3000 | +3000 | 6.67% |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres | +2000 | +1600 | +2000 | 4.76% |
| Jesus Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies | +2200 | +2000 | +6600 | 4.35% |
| Freddy Peralta | Milwaukee Brewers | +2500 | +4000 | +3000 | 3.85% |
| Nick Pivetta | San Diego Padres | +2500 | +2500 | +5000 | 3.85% |
Looking at the dark horses to win the NL Cy Young, there are a few names that jump out. For one, you have the current ERA-leader in the National League, as Kodai Senga is sporting a 1.22 ERA through eight starts this season.
Senga is the ace of what has been the best rotation in baseball so far this season with the Mets, and is not showing any signs of slowing down coming off a lost season in 2024. The one issue with Senga is that the Mets are keeping him on five days’ rest, meaning he will have fewer starts than some of these other contenders by season’s end.
Best Bet: Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
The other end of that spectrum is Logan Webb, who is an absolute workhorse atop the Giants’ rotation. Webb is one of the great iron men in the game today, who consistently has made every start and has led the National League in innings pitched in each of the last two seasons.
Webb finished runner-up in the Cy Young race in 2023 and was in the top 10 last year.
How to Follow the MLB Cy Young Odds
When betting on awards futures, timing is everything. Knowing when it is right to strike is half the battle in making sure you are finding value on the board. Right now, there may be more value looking towards the dark horses in the Cy Young races, since things are still very wide-open in each league.
Spreading one of your units across two or three arms with longer odds may be better than going all-in on one arm that is a favorite with shorter odds.
The best way to follow the odds is to check weekly, follow the trends, and always remember what the BBWAA voters are going to value above everything else in the Cy Young race, ERA and WAR. Follow those two key statistics and pay attention to what the odds are telling us each week to find value in betting on this futures market.
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