D-backs Going for Series Victory vs Braves Behind Merrill Kelly

The Arizona Diamondbacks play the Atlanta Braves Wednesday evening at Truist Park, with a first pitch at 4:15 p.m. MST, 7:15 p.m. EST. The D-backs will be going for their first series victory since taking two of three from the Rockies May 16-18.

Arizona beat Spencer Strider and the Braves 8-3 Tuesday night behind two-homer games from both Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll. Zac Gallen had an excellent start and the bullpen protected the lead.

The victory allowed the 29-31 Diamondbacks to pull within four games of the third NL Wild Card. The Braves are 27-32, 5.5 games out.

Pitching Matchup

Merrill Kelly, 5-2, 3.78 ERA in 69 IP. Kelly is coming off back-to-back starts in which he gave up four earned runs, most recently against the Nationals. Despite that, Kelly has still thrown a quality start in six of his 12 outings, 50%. The average quality start rate across Major League Baseball is only 35%.

Kelly's Statcast page is not going to wow anyone with a lot of red bubbles. But he is an artist on the mound with a six-pitch mix he can throw for strikes. His signature changeup is his swing-and-miss pitch, and his cutter induces soft contact. He's also developed his slider to the point where it can be a very effective weapon against right-hand batters.

Kelly is tied with Curt Schilling for third on the Diamondbacks franchise leaderboard in wins with 58 and is sixth in Baseball-Reference WAR with 15.0.

Chris Sale, 3-3, 3.06 ERA, 2.99 FIP in 67.2 IP. In contrast to Kelly, Sale's Statcast page does have a lot of red bubbles. The lanky left-hander continues to snap off sliders at a prodigious 48% rate, and the pitch is still unhittable with a .158 batting average against. His 95 MPH four-seam fastball has been hit hard, however, as he's allowed a .344 average and .548 slug on the pitch.

Sale will mix in the occasional changeup and sinker, but it's still essentially a two-pitch mix. If hitters can get a fastball to hit and guess right, they can get to him. But most of the time, he can set batters up for the slider, which produces a 42% whiff rate.

Sale recently recorded his 2500th strikeout, needing the fewest number of innings to reach that milestone in history. The 36-year-old is making a late-career push to cement his Hall of Fame case.

Injuries have robbed him of the bulk typically needed to woo the voters, as he's thrown just 2,026 innings. His career record is 141-86, .621 W% and he has 54.5 WAR. Sale's 11.1 K/9 ratio is the highest of any pitcher with over 2000 innings, and his 140 ERA+ ranks 20th all time. If Sale can stay healthy for three more years and gets to 3000 strikeouts, he'll have a strong case.

LINEUPS

Check back later in the day for lineups

BULLPENS

Justin Martinez warmed up in the top of th ninth inning Tuesday, but sat down when Corbin Carroll launced a three-run homer to make the score 8-3. Shelby Miller pitched a scoreless eighth, his third game out of four. Ryan Thompson pitched the ninth.

Expect to see Jalen Beeks on Wednesday be part of the bridge to Martinez should the D-backs have a lead.

The Braves used four pitchers on Tuesday. Rafael Montero threw 39 pitches and allowed the Carroll homer. Embattled closer Raisel Iglesias last worked on Sunday and should be available.