Guardians a strong five-inning bet vs. Red Sox

Yesterday's pitcher props treated us well, so let's continue down that road of using pitching data to fuel our favorite bet of the day in baseball.

Look for the Guardians to come out strong — There's a stark difference in Cleveland's and Boston's hitting success when tasked with a RHP on the mound. No team strikes out less than the Guardians against righties, and their OBP ranks sixth against RHPs. Meanwhile, Boston's OBP is second-worst against RHPs, and they're striking out at the third-highest rate over the past 30 days.
 
Tonight's starters are Kutter Crawford for the Red Sox and Triston McKenzie for the Guardians. Based on the above stats, we'll assume you understand both are RHP. Given this difference between both lineups when facing a righty, the edge favors McKenzie and Cleveland. So, how to approach this? Sure, you could look for the Guardians to win, but that opens up alternate outcomes once the bullpen gets involved.

Our preferred bet is to back Cleveland to win the first five innings, +105 on DraftKings. The idea here is that our perceived edge is built on the back of these two starters and how the teams fare against this type of pitcher. McKenzie allowed one run in his last start and held teams scoreless in each of his three starts before that. Boston's first five ML is 2-6-2 in its last 10 games, and the team is seriously struggling, 2-8 overall in that stretch. Meanwhile, Cleveland is 7-3 in its past 10 and flirting with first place in the AL Central. We're betting on the Guardians jumping on Crawford early, while the Red Sox struggle to keep pace.

Today's pick: Cleveland first five innings moneyline (+105 DK)

In other news ...

Significant betting handle on Russell Wilson to win MVP — According to a report out of BetMGM, there has been a massive influx of bets on Russell Wilson to win 2022 NFL MVP. 18.9% of the total handle and 18.7% of all MVP bets have been on the new Broncos quarterback, who currently has odds at +1400 to bring home the award. Wilson has never won MVP, so while some may think it's time for the next generation of stars like Josh Allen to win, someone with Wilson's pedigree sure does feel like a guy deserving of an MVP with a strong season. We like Denver's chances this year. The Broncos have a strong receiving corps and offense, along with playmakers on defense. Should the Broncos navigate a grueling AFC West, Wilson has to be considered one of the favorites for MVP.

Rocket Mortgage Classic tees off today — The next PGA Tour event on the docket is the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit. Tony Finau won the 3M Open last week and currently holds 12-1 odds of winning again, the second-highest of the field. The favorite is Patrick Cantlay at +1000, one of the top-ranked golfers on Tour. Our favorite wager is Cantlay to finish in the top 10 at +140. He already has nine top-10 finishes this season in just 16 tournaments, offering some fantastic odds.

Jacob deGrom on track to start for the Mets next week — Jacob deGrom, one of the best pitchers in baseball, could finally make his season debut as early as Aug. 3, says Mets manager Buck Showalter. deGrom is fresh off a rocky rehab start but seems to be on track to return to the majors and get the start for the first time since July 7 of last year. This deserves attention. Should deGrom find his prior dominance, it would be a massive jolt for a Mets team already in first place in the NL East. The Mets are +750 to win the World Series, and if their ace looks right, those odds are sure to rise.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll