MLB World Series Game 5 SGP

Our Game 4 Same-Game Parlay (SGP) didn't hit — darn you NRFI (no runs first inning), we needed at least one run in the first inning — but what we expected to happen, did happen.

Houston not only won on Wednesday night to even the series, the Astros no-hit the Phillies. The Phillies' offense, which had been nearly unstoppable this postseason, got no-hit. And to top it off, it's just the second no-hitter in World Series history. That's not just great, or impressive, that's historic. 

Cristian Javier set the tone with six hitless innings, and then Houston's bullpen did its thing, like they've done for most of the postseason. And whether or not the Astros win Game 5 to take their first lead of the World Series, well, we'll have to wait for Thursday night. But despite Wednesday's historic win, don't think the Phillies are just going to go away quietly. That's why we like the over of 5.5 runs and the Phillies +3.5 through five innings for the first two legs of our SGP. And for the final leg of our SGP, take Houston +1.5 on the runline.

The final score has gone over six runs in three of the first four games of this series, and despite the under hitting on Wednesday night, don't expect it to happen again. These two offenses can rake, as they've displayed all postseason, and one bad night from the Phillies offense shouldn't deter you from taking the over of 5.5 runs. 

Justin Verlander is starting for Houston, and if you know anything about Verlander, it's that he has struggled his entire career in the World Series. In eight postseason starts, the future Hall of Famer is 0-6 with an ERA of 6.07. Small sample size or not, Verlander's struggles are more than just a fluke. Meanwhile Philly is going with Noah Syndergaard, who was scheduled to start Game 3 on Tuesday before it was postponed due to rain. Syndergaard hasn't gone more than three innings in any postseason appearance, and with so much at stake, expect Rob Thompson not to hesitate to pull him if things go south early. And while Philadelphia's bullpen has been better than most expected during the postseason, counting on them to be stellar for what could be a long night is super, super risky.

Verlander looked great in Game 1 before the fourth inning, and even if he coasts through the lineup the first time through, Philly's offense has shown us they are more than capable of making in-game adjustments. That's why Philadelphia +3.5 runs through five innings is totally worth it. Unlike Games 3 and 4, which were one-sided shutouts, expect both teams to put up at least a run or two through the first five innings. Game 5 should be far from one-sided, which is why Philly +3.5 through five innings is the most confident leg of our SGP.

As for the final leg of our SGP, we're taking Houston +1.5 runs. We liked Houston to rebound in Game 4 on Wednesday night, and we like the 'stros to take their first lead of the series, and win Game 5. No matter how bad Verlander has been over his career in the World Series, the Astros bullpen is still pretty well rested, and unlike Game 1, Dusty Baker probably won't hesitate to yank him if he hits a wall again. But just to be safe, we're going to take Houston +1.5 on the runline. 

Syndergaard hasn't pitched in almost a week and a half, and that much extra rest is far from ideal. Don't be surprised if both pitchers fail to get through four, but don't be surprised if this game is tied for the majority of the night. And if that happens, don't expect either team to pull ahead by a run late, even if it's Philly. That's why Houston +1.5 is still the right play here. 

The Same-Game Parlay: Total Runs > 5.5, Houston Astros +1.5 Runs & Philadelphia Phillies +3.5 Runs after 5 (+105 odds via FanDuel)