Phillies will regret extending Aaron Nola
On Sunday, the Philadelphia Phillies signed starting pitcher Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $172M extension. This all but assures the 30-year-old Nola will stay in Philadelphia his whole career.
Based on the series of self-congratulatory tweets the Phillies sent out following the signing, you would think that this move was welcomed with open arms.
However, objective Philadelphia fans have to look past the warm and fuzzy feelings and realize that this was a poor use of so much money.
Nola supporters will be quick to mention his 193.2 innings pitched and 202 strikeouts in 2023, fifth and eighth in the National League in those respective categories, per Stathead from Baseball Reference.
They'll also point out his first three starts of the postseason, in which he allowed just two earned runs over 18.2 innings with 19 strikeouts and two walks.
They'll be equally quick to avoid the issue of his 32 home runs allowed — third most in the National League — and his 4.46 ERA, third worst in the NL among qualifying starting pitchers (one inning pitched per team game played).
Worst of all, Nola failed when the Phillies needed him most. In Game 6 of the National League Championship Series, with Philadelphia one win away from a World Series berth, Nola surrendered four runs over 4.1 innings in a 5-1 loss to Arizona. The Diamondbacks, of course, would win Game 7 the next night to advance to the Fall Classic.
Over nine seasons with the Phillies, Nola has seldom lived up to the expectations of a first-round draft pick. Philadelphia selected the right-hander out of LSU with the seventh pick in the 2014 MLB Draft.
Nola peaked in 2018 when he finished third in National League Cy Young Award voting thanks to a 17-6 record with a 2.37 ERA. That season was more of an outlier than a starting point, though. Aside from 2018, Nola has never finished a season with more than 12 wins or an ERA lower than 3.25.
A lack of starting pitching is not an issue for Philadelphia. With the likes of Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker, the Phillies have a solid rotation. Their faults lay squarely in the bullpen. Relief pitching — namely closer Craig Kimbrel — contributed directly to two of Philadelphia's losses in the NLCS.
The $172M could have bought a lot of bullpen help. Instead, the Phillies chose the supposedly sentimental route. Assuming Nola continues his downward trajectory, it's a move that Philadelphia will live to regret.
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