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Analyst Taps Young Tiger in MVP Forecast Over Yankees' Aaron Judge

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Kristie Ackert | Last updated May 9, 2025 5:13 PM ET

Aaron Judge is riding a historic hot streak that makes the “Aaron Judge MVP 2025” chatter feel so predictable. His numbers are crazy. Through 37 games, he’s hitting .400 with a 1.241 OPS. He leads baseball in homers, hits, RBIs, WAR and OPS+.

His pace is better than the 2022 season when he broke the American League record for single-season home runs.

But in his latest “bold predictions,” MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince plays the contrarian. Maybe he’s bored with Judge’s dominance or tired of watching him crush home runs.

Either way, the MLB.com senior writer makes the case for Riley Greene instead.

The 24‑year‑old Tiger has a .773 OPS and 0.5 bWAR so far. He shook off a slow April to earn Player of the Week honors. Still, that gap in production would take him 160 games to close at this pace.

So, yeah. That Greene for MVP prediction feels like a long shot.

Even in his argument, Castrovince admits Judge would win today.

"Judge is completely lapping the field right now, but that was also the case around this time in 2023, before he dealt with a midseason foot injury. I don’t wish injury upon him (not even to help me stumble upon a correct prediction for once), but it is a part of his career profile, unfortunately. So stranger things have happened," Castrovince wrote.

Ok, he missed 56 games with a broken toe in 2023 after crashing into the wall at Dodger Stadium. Judge played in 158 games last season and he’s played in at least 148 in three of the last four seasons.

Sure, he’s had injuries, especially early in his career, but that narrative might be overblown.

Greene’s breakout week gives us a flash of his potential. He’s an incredibly talented player on a hot team right now. A sustained surge could change the story – in July or August.

Until then, let’s remember Judge is chasing of Barry Bonds‑level numbers. He’s a generational talent. Let’s just enjoy the show.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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