Are the Pirates Right to Wait on Bubba Chandler?

If there’s one strength the Pittsburgh Pirates have showcased over the last few seasons, it’s been their immense pitching depth and their ability to develop ace-caliber arms at the front of their rotation. When looking through the Minor League system, this continues to ring true with their top prospect, Bubba Chandler.

Ever since he was selected by the Pirates back in the 2021 MLB Draft, the ceiling has been exciting for the right-hander. Once a two-way prospect and a two-spot athlete, Chandler was one of the more intriguing players from that year’s class who wasn’t a first-round pick.

Chandler really began to set the world on fire with his performance in last year’s minor league season, where he recorded a 3.09 ERA in 119.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. He also earned an appearance in the All-Star Futures Game, eventually becoming the Pirates’ consensus number-one prospect by the end of the season.

Early this season, it looked like Chandler’s rise to the top was going to continue. Chandler was named our number two overall prospect in the most recent update of the Just Baseball Top 100 as well. He had lit Triple-A on fire with his triple-digit heater, which allowed him to go right after hitters. With calls to promote Chandler, the Pirates have stayed silent, letting him work in the minor leagues.

Chandler’s last few starts haven’t been as sharp as his outings in the early part of the year, making it seem like he could still use some fine-tuning in Triple-A. This has raised the question: Are the Pirates right to take Chandler’s development slowly?

Breaking Down His 2025 Season

Overall, Bubba Chandler’s 2025 season has been quite the success, repeating the rise to the top he saw last season. As of today, Chandler has made 14 starts, recording 55.1 innings of 2.30 ERA baseball. He’s also struck out 73 batters in this time frame, which is good for a 32.6% strikeout rate.

For any arm, this is truly elite action on the mound, but it’s especially impressive considering Bubba Chandler is still just 22 years old. This level of dominance from a pitcher of his age is an impressive sign of what’s still to come.

Chandler has dominated mostly due to his arsenal, which is pretty well-rounded overall. It’s headlined by his four-seam fastball, which is one of the best four-seamers in the minor leagues.

Chandler has dialed his fastball up over 100 MPH at times, usually averaging about 98 MPH on the pitch. His four-seamer has a unicorn profile, with elite vertical break. It’s averaged about 18 inches, but when Chandler was in Altoona, I saw the pitch register as high as 22 inches of vertical break.

In addition to this, he gets 8-10 inches of arm-side run, giving the pitch an overall shape that’s pretty disgusting for opposing batters. It’s an incredible offering, giving him a fantastic primary pitch to attack hitters with.

In addition to this unicorn fastball, Chandler throws one of the better changeups in the minor leagues. This changeup has become the perfect offering to pair with his fastball, with its late, arm-side movement making it hard to pick out from the fastball. It averages around 18 inches of arm-side movement, making it a fantastic offering.

Chandler also possesses two decent breaking balls that have helped tie his arsenal together, which include a slider and a curveball. His slider has gyro movement, and it plays well off of his fastball given its shape and speed. His curveball grades out fairly well, although it’s not an offering he uses much. The curveball has been used more as a putaway pitch in 2025, giving it more upside.

While neither his slider nor curveball is his go-to pitch, they’ve been crucial parts of his arsenal both early and late in counts. As he continues to grow as a pitcher, they should develop even further, both becoming plus pitches as he moves up the system.

On paper, Chandler’s arsenal is one of the best in the minor leagues, and it’s shown in his numbers. As I previously mentioned, he’s currently striking out nearly 33% of opposing batters, which shows his dominance. He’s really grown in his confidence in throwing all of his pitches, which has helped him achieve such tremendous strikeout metrics in Triple-A.

While his arsenal on paper may be polished and well-rounded, we’ve seen one of the other parts of his arsenal lack this season, especially in his last few starts.

Chandler’s control has been one of the main sources of concern when it comes to his big-league readiness, as it’s become clear he still needs some fine-tuning in this area. As of his last start, he’s currently walked 26 batters in his 51.1 innings, which is good for a 12.1% walk rate.

This lack of control has really put Chandler into some tough jams, which could be seen in his most recent start on June 11th. In this start, Chandler lasted just 0.2 innings, walking four of the six batters he faced.

While it appears as though Chandler was pulled due to the sheer number of pitches he had thrown in under one inning of work, these types of tough innings are what have many people concerned for his future.

In fact, he’s had five starts this season where he’s walked three or more batters, with three of these outings lasting under three innings. One of these starts also included two hit by pitches, and a wild pitch, both also indicating some lack of control.

This is something Chandler can certainly fine-tune, but it points towards his big league debut being a little further away than we previously expected.

The Pirates’ Current Rotation Pieces and Their Success

Another factor the Pirates need to keep in mind when deciding what the timeline may look like for Bubba Chandler is the success of the rest of the rotation. Their rotation has been one of the best in baseball, leaving them with less pressure to promote Chandler.

This rotation is, of course, headlined by arguably the best starting pitcher in the sport, Paul Skenes, which has helped their dominance. The right-hander has registered a 1.78 ERA with 97 strikeouts through his first 96 innings, absolutely dominating every hitter he faces.

In addition to Skenes, left-handers Bailey Falter and Andrew Heaney have both been very good additions to this rotation, really tying things together.

Falter has pitched to a 3.57 ERA this year, while also having one of the most dominant months from a starting pitcher we’ve seen all season. Falter threw just under 36 innings in May, recording a 0.76 ERA and allowing just 17 hits in the process.

Heaney has also been an extremely consistent option for the Pirates, as he’s pitched to a 3.33 ERA across 78.1 innings. Heaney has gone from an offseason signing to a reliable arm, and one that should fetch a decent haul at the trade deadline.

Despite his record, former All-Star Mitch Keller has pitched very well this season.

The $77 million man has recorded an ERA of just over four with 11 quality starts, which is tied for the most in the sport.

The only other open spot in this rotation currently belongs to Mike Burrows, a former top pitching prospect for the club. Burrows has pitched well through his first five starts, even recording eight strikeouts in one of these games.

Given the overall strength of rotation, the Pirates have ranked near the top of the starting pitcher leaderboards. The Bucs currently rank sixth in starter ERA, which is impressive considering they’ve spent the entire season without last year’s other rookie star, Jared Jones.

Due to the overall strength of the rotation, the Pirates haven’t felt pressured to promote Chandler just yet and have been able to take their time in his development. Down the line, this will be key to his success in the big leagues, and it couldn’t happen without the current rotation.

Are the Pirates Right to Hold Him Back?

Although it’s exciting to imagine Bubba Chandler’s eventual MLB Debut, the Pittsburgh Pirates are doing the right thing by holding Chandler in Triple-A and letting him truly fine-tune his skills.

The current starting rotation has held up very well, and there’s no reason to rush him to the MLB level due to this fact. If they do, they could end up not only damaging his career and his future but also the current state of the rotation. This would be devastating for both Chandler and the team, as their rotation is one of the team’s few bright spots.

Also, although Chandler may pitch far beyond his years, he’s still just 22 years old, and there’s plenty of time for him to develop. In today’s age, we’ve seen players shoot through the minor leagues so fast that we sometimes forget that it’s okay for these developments to take time, and not happen immediately.

The next step for Chandler will be fine-tuning his command as well as how he attacks hitters, which will be huge pieces to his future big-league success. If he can cut back on the walks and still effortlessly attack hitters, he’ll be in a great place to compete.

While there may not be a timetable for Chandler just yet, it seems logical to assume his debut will occur around the trade deadline if all goes to plan.

Assuming no injuries speed up the process, it seems as though the Pirates will shop around Andrew Heaney and potentially Bailey Falter, which would free up a spot for him in the already crowded rotation.

Once they find a package they like for either of these arms, a path will be clear for his debut. This will also give Bubba Chandler a little over a month more at Triple-A to prepare himself for the big leagues.

Whenever Chandler does debut, it’ll be one of the more anticipated debuts in the 2025 season. Assuming all goes to plan, he’ll immediately stand in as one of the best young arms in the sport, working towards reaching his true all-star potential in the big leagues.