As Marlins Find Answers, Bigger Questions Loom

The Miami Marlins may be seven games under .500, but it doesn’t feel like it of late. A franchise-record 11-game road win streak will help with that, as will a 17-8 record over a 25-game stretch.

That said, it’s a marathon of a season; even rudderless teams can have a good month. But, it’s the way that they’re doing it that provides a glimmer of 2009 if you squint hard enough.

This time last year, the Marlins rolled out a lineup daily that featured more place-holders than building blocks. Tim Anderson, Emmanuel Rivera, Vidal Brujan and Nick Gordon combined for more than 1,000 plate appearances for no other reason other than the fact that somebody had to, and the team used more pitchers than any team in MLB history (45).

It’s understandable for requests of patience from the franchise to fall on deaf ears, as fans have minimal patience left to give and the Marlins have not necessarily earned the benefit of the doubt from the rest of the baseball world. But it’s important to evaluate each front office regime in a vacuum, especially when the approach is tangibly different than before.

From a 20,000 foot view, trading Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Luis Arraez did not necessarily make it easy to tell Peter Bendix apart from his predecessors. But in terms of asset value, Bendix has done far more with less.

Strong Early Returns on Critical Trades

Bendix was fairly questioned for parting with Arraez so early in the 2024 season, though it’s clear he may have gotten out at the right time.

The contact savant has struggled to replicate his production with the Padres, producing just 1.4 fWAR in nearly 250 games in San Diego. As the Padres find themselves working within thin margins financially heading into this season, they shopped Arraez around, struggling to find a taker for his final year of control at $14 million.

Time will tell if the three prospects the Marlins picked up will be long-term pieces, though it’s hard to argue that retaining Arraez for two more seasons would’ve been more beneficial to the organization than acquiring Jakob Marsee, Dillon Head and Nathan Martorella, as Marsee looks to be the next man up for a big league promotion.

Clearing up reps up the middle has allowed Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards to create a respectable duo up the middle, each with four years of control after 2025.

Ironically, Edwards was acquired from Bendix and the Rays by former Marlins GM Kim Ng prior to the 2023 season. Lopez, on the other hand, was a waiver claim who now looks the part of an everyday big league shortstop, something the Marlins have lacked for some time.

With Lopez looking like a potential 3-4 WAR shortstop, Edwards has been able to slide to his more natural position at second base, where both his defense and offense have ticked up, placing him in the above average regular territory at his position as well.

Since the start of the 2024 season (131 games started), Lopez accumulated 22 outs above average and 14 defensive runs saved at second base. Elite defense at second base has translated into plus defense at shortstop, where he has already picked up three outs above average and two defensive runs saved in 45 games started.

For reference, the Marlins have not had a 3.0 fWAR season from a primary shortstop since Jose Reyes in 2012.

As for the Chisholm Jr. trade, he has been impactful with the Yankees and came with more control (he’s a free agent after 2026) meaning there was at least somewhat of a case for the Marlins to maybe hold onto the marketable power and speed threat. It was also unlikely that the Marlins would be able to fill their gaps within his window of control, given the lack of MLB talent combined with one of MLB’s worst farm systems at the time.

With Sandy Alcantara and Jesus Luzardo on the shelf at the time, Chisholm Jr. was the Marlins best bet to acquire the talent needed to jolt the farm. Headlining the 2024 deadline trade return was catcher Agustin Ramirez, along with a pair of infield prospects in Jared Serna and Abrahan Ramirez.

Despite playing only 185 games above Low-A, Ramirez only needed 58 Triple-A games after the trade to earn a call up to Miami. There’s no doubting that his defense is a serious work in progress, ranking in the bottom five percent in the league in Blocks Above Average and Caught Stealing Above Average to go with average framing.

The bat was ultimately what attracted the Marlins, and he has immediately proven capable in that regard, launching 14 homers with a 106 wRC+ through his first 71 MLB games while striking out just 19% of the time.

Even with his defensive struggles, Marlins catchers have already accumulated the most fWAR in a season since 2018 when JT Realmuto was the team’s primary catcher. Rule 5 Draft pick Liam Hicks is a big part of that as well, posting a 122 wRC+ and 0.9 fWAR.

It’s worth noting that Hicks is also a bat-first catcher, albeit better defensively than Ramirez. Hicks made the leap from Double-A to the big leagues, which earns him some more patience in regards to what his defense could ultimately be.

Generally one of your two backstops would preferably be defensive-minded, and with the Marlins also still carrying Nick Fortes, he fills that role. It makes sense for the Marlins to move off of Fortes in the near future as Joe Mack–Just Baseball’s No. 60 prospect and one of the better defensive catchers in the minors–is on the cusp of an MLB call-up of his own.

Even if the Marlins move one of Ramirez or Hicks off of catcher, they both look like above average MLB bats. The most realistic scenario catching wise would be a Joe Mack and Liam Hicks tandem with Agustin Ramirez playing first base and DHing, but filling in behind the dish when needed. That kind of depth, control and upside at catcher is something the team hasn’t seen in a very long time.

Since 2018, only seven qualified Marlins hitters have put up a wRC+ north of 110 in a season, a figure that both Ramirez and Hicks could very well clear from behind the dish.

The Marlins All-Star representative Kyle Stowers has a chance to post the highest wRC+ by a Marlins in a single season since that date at 151. Since 2010, there have only been three seasons by a Marlin with a wRC+ over 145, and they’re all by Giancarlo Stanton.

Another recent example of turning lemons into lemonade, Stowers was acquired alongside Connor Norby at the 2024 deadline as well from the Orioles, and after a first stint with the Fish at the end of the season, Stowers has been one of the more surprising breakouts in Major League Baseball.

Stowers credits a long conversation with Marlins assistant hitting coach Derek Shomon and hitting coach Pedro Guerrero, in tandem with relentless cage work, for his offensive breakout. Both coaches were hired ahead of the 2025 season as part of a top-down overhaul of the team’s hitting philosophy and player development strategy.

It’s not just Stowers, Ramirez and Hicks who have put it together at the highest level. Outfielder Griffin Conine fended off hit-tool questions with a 117 wRC+ through his first 50 MLB games before a season-ending shoulder injury, and Dane Myers has been a solid performer in the outfield as well.

Minor League free agent signing Heriberto Hernandez has also exceeded expectations, posting a 145 wRC+ through his first 30 games, which is too small of a sample to draw anything significant from, but is an example of promoted Marlins hitters being better prepared to survive at the MLB level than previous seasons, as Hernandez went from a 35% strikeout rate in Triple-A to 28% through those first 30 big league games.

As rosy of a picture as I’ve painted, the team still needs more offensive talent. Even with all of these gains, the Marlins are 21st in baseball with a 95 wRC+ and aside from Joe Mack, the organization does not necessarily have a position player prospect who comfortably projects as a big league regular at the upper levels.

Snagging infielder Aiva Arquette seventh overall in the 2025 draft surely provides a prime candidate to change that narrative and lower level talents like Starlyn Caba, Andrew Salas, PJ Morlando and Dillon Head at least provide something to dream on, but none of which have played above Low-A.

A way to remedy that issue would be, of course, to acquire more talent. That said, teams are not necessarily jumping out of their seats to trade away quality upper minors hitting prospects.

Generally, it’s going to take an above average big leaguer with control, of which, the Marlins have three worthy candidates: Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara and Ronny Henriquez.

Players like Jesus Sanchez, Anthony Bender and maybe even Cal Quantrill should net the Marlins a return at least worth the exercise, but the aforementioned trio of arms are likely the only who have a chance to shake up the farm. Tough it’s a bit more complicated than that.

What Do They Do with Sandy Alcantara?

Here lies the crux of the issue. The Marlins have Alcantara under control through the 2027 season at roughly $18 million per year. Alcantara would not need to be in his 2022 unanimous Cy Young form for that contract to be a bargain, even his 4.14 ERA in 184 2/3 innings the following year would be enough production for teams to line up to acquire his services for the next two and a half seasons.

The challenge is, since returning from Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2024 season, Alcantara has sported a 7.22 ERA in 91 innings with a career-low 17% strikeout rate. Some speed bumps were to be expected from the 29-year-old after such a lengthy layoff and UCL replacement, especially in the command department.

Given his track record and the price for pitching, the money is likely not enough of a deterrent to keep teams away, but it definitely will drive down the caliber of talent they are willing to part with to bet on a bounce back.

If any team is going to be deterred by the finances, it’s the team that Alcantara currently plays for; another reason why teams that are calling may try to low-ball the Marlins. Even with the positive trend of the Marlins, they’d likely be happy to move off of the roughly $7.5 million he is owed in what ultimately looks like another sub-.500 season.

The other option for the Marlins would be to retain their most recognizable player and hope that he either rebuilds his value in the second half for an offseason trade, or gets right with another offseason.

Optically, it’s easy to argue that this is the right move…unless a team is willing to meet a firm asking price. That price should start with a relatively high-profile, upper minor league bat. The Marlins have made too much progress in 2025 to make moves that don’t have 2026 (or at least 2027) in mind.

Revisiting the optics point, the idea of trading Alcantara at an all-time low value wise would be hard to dress up as anything other than a salary dump, especially when the team does not project to have a single player making over $5 million next season, assuming Jesus Sanchez is traded. Cal Quantrill’s $3.5 million will also be off of the books next season.

It would be fair and reasonable for the team to sell 2025 as a step towards competing as the team looks to regain some goodwill with fans. After all, Marlins position players are on pace for the highest combined fWAR since the 2017 team that featured NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto and other established big leaguers.

Words and actions operating in contrast have jaded an already fair-weather Marlins fan base, and trading Alcantara for anything other than an impactful haul would undermine the expected messaging that the team is closer to competing.

Still, there’s gaps to fill on the Marlins roster that can’t all be addressed via free agency or internally. Connor Norby looks more the part of a bench piece, leaving third base as a position to upgrade, while the opposite corner has been a deficiency as well.

Theoretically, the Marlins trio of catchers could satisfy both first base and DH, but that would require Joe Mack taking on a significant role behind the dish as a rookie to allow Liam Hicks and Agustin Ramirez to fill the first base and DH spots.

Marlins first baseman have posted a wRC+ of 65, good for the third-worst figure in baseball, ahead of only the Pirates and Rockies. Even with the emergence of Marsee and decent performance by Dane Myers, it would be difficult to call that platoon in center field anything other than a roll of the dice in 2026.

So, if the Marlins keep Alcantara, how else can they fill these gaps?

The Case for Moving Edward Cabrera

Talent was never a question for the 27-year-old right-hander who frustrated with inconsistent command and injuries since debuting in 2021. Even so, he owned a respectable 4.32 ERA in just under 300 innings entering this season. After a rocky start to the season, Cabrera has enjoyed the best stretch of his career.

Over his last dozen starts, Cabrera has pitched to a 2.54 ERA in 63 2/3 innings with a 25.7% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. His newfound ability to land four quality pitches for a strike along with three and a half years of control at an Arb 1 number of just $1.95 million should make Cabrera a hot commodity on the trade market, likely to command a more significant package than Alcantara.

But much of the same argument in regards to Alcantara could be applied to the Cabrera situation. The 27-year-old has finally put it together and looks like he can help the team win ballgames in 2026 and beyond, why move him?

Well, it depends on how sold Bendix and co. are on the strong 12 starts and even if they believe he found something (many metrics and merely watching his starts would make it easy to come away optimistic), the second variable is his health.

He underwent an MRI after leaving his last start of the first half early with elbow discomfort, which fortunately came back clean, making it unlikely he misses any time. This routine is something that has happened several times over the years with the cautious Cabrera, but he has had some legitimate injuries as well.

He hit the IL twice last season with a right shoulder impingement and blister issues. He also missed time in 2023 with a shoulder impingement with recurring blister issues dating back to 2021.

In stark contrast to the Alcantara situation, trading Cabrera could possibly be selling at an all-time high as he is on pace to eclipse 100 innings at the MLB level for the first time in his career. The most innings he has ever thrown in a season is 110 1/3 between the minor leagues and major leagues, including rehab innings.

If the Marlins are able to net near-MLB ready hitting talent for Cabrera while retaining Alcantara, the team could still be set up just as well for 2026 and even better beyond, albeit, still with plenty of variance in the rotation.

Eury Perez looks like the budding superstar he was prior to Tommy John surgery in his first handful of starts back, Ryan Weathers was in the midst of a breakout prior to hitting the IL with a lat issue, Braxton Garrett should be healthy for the start of the 2026 season, Just Baseball’s No. 78 prospect Robby Snelling is already in Triple-A and the team’s top overall prospect Thomas White is already turning heads in Double-A.

Add in a breakout Jansen Junk, who has pitched to a 2.68 ERA in 50 1/3 innings with no shortage of buy-low candidates in the free agent market and the Marlins should be able to piece together an intriguing rotation.

Max Meyer will also be healthy for the start of the 2026 season after hip surgery, Adam Mazur still has the ability to potentially slot in as a back-end arm.

Again, the Marlins have the leverage to sit tight and hold firm on their asking price for Cabrera, but as we see at each deadline, teams will meet steep asks for pitching at the deadline–particularly of the controllable variety–and Bendix’s recent success on the trade market only adds to the case to listen on Cabrera.

As for closer Ronny Henriquez, the Marlins will likely have a similar internal discussion as to how sustainable they believe his 2025 breakout is. Outlier stuff makes it a lot easier to buy into, as does a 25% K-BB rate. With five years of control after 2025, meaning two years of pre-arbitration salary after this one, it would take a monumental package to justify moving Henriquez, who could very well be the team’s closer for the next half decade.

A Little Spending Could Go a Long Way

Assuming the Marlins trade Jesus Sanchez, Anthony Bender and Nick Fortes, even generous arbitration projections for the Marlins six arb players would likely put them at a payroll well below $50 million, and that includes Avisail Garcia’s $5 million in dead money.

Marlins owner Bruce Sherman has pushed back on the lack of spending criticism, saying the team has spent money on “things you don’t see,” and while his assertion may have lacked some feel given the historical frugality of the franchise that predates him, he is not necessarily wrong.

The vasty improved player development infrastructure doesn’t come cheaply or easily. Between the development of a $15 million, 35-acre academy in the Dominican Republic and upgrades to the Roger Dean Complex in Jupiter, the Marlins have spent in areas that should help the organization long-term.

Small market teams essentially need to create their own assets to make up for the financial inequality between themselves and the Dodgers and Yankees of the world.

Even if some argue that the spending on player development infrastructure was in lieu of spending on the roster in order to avoid an MLBPA grievance, it was a necessary step for the Marlins to ever have a chance to find themselves in the same conversation as teams like the Brewers and Rays, who create and maximize assets as well as any organization.

They also need to spend more on things fans can see to find themselves in the same ballpark payroll wise as the two historically stingy teams. Only $67 million in total payroll this season is dead last in baseball and roughly $10 million less than the Athletics who have the next lowest payroll, according to Spotrac.

For reference, the Brewers and Rays each sit at $112 million and $87 million respectively. With the Marlins slated to sit at less than half of the Rays total next season and more controllable building blocks than the team has had since Sherman purchased the team in 2017 and Jeter hit the reset button on the Stanton, Yelich, Realmuto, Ozuna core.

“We will spend money at the right time, I guarantee it,” Sherman said last offseason. “Nobody wants to win more than I do.”

Thanks to what looks like a potentially successful overhaul of the Marlins front office and R&D, the team is on the cusp of the “right time”. But the potential for fan optimism created by an improved process needs to be pushed across the finish line by at least some spending on the big league roster, otherwise most will see the same old Marlins…just savvier.