A's Odds of Reaching the Postseason in 2026

Inside the A's clubhouse is a group that is expecting to play postseason games in 2026. They finished with a 76-86 record last season, but following the emergence of Rookie of the Year winner Nick Kurtz and runner up Jacob Wilson, the A's offense looks like it should be among the best in baseball.

The team's pitching staff has been a concern all offseason, and they haven't done a ton to assuage those concerns. Their only addition on a MLB contract was veteran right-handed reliever Mark Leiter Jr., who has some intriguing underlying metrics, but still finished with a 4.84 ERA in 2025 with the New York Yankees.

At the same time, the amount of youth that the A's have on their pitching staff makes them hard to project. Back in 2012 the A's were carried by a number of rookie arms having tremendous seasons, and they ended up wining the AL West on the final day of the regular season. While that isn't the expectation for this year's group, it's within the realm of possibility.

Here are what the postseason projections over at FanGraphs have to say about the A's in 2026.

A's projections give them a decent shot at October baseball

With spring training set to kick off in just under two weeks, the A's odds of making it to the postseason in some way are pretty decent, though not overwhelming. FanGraphs playoff odds have the A's at 23.3% overall, which ranks them fourth in the division. The Texas Rangers are the next-closest to them in the West at 32.4%, while the Mariners and Astros are at 77.9% and 39.7%.

While the odds look good, the A's are still near the bottom of the American League overall. They're ahead of the Los Angeles Angels (6.1%), Chicago White Sox (1.2%), Cleveland Guardians (14.1%) and the Tampa Bay Rays (21%), but trail every other club. The Rangers are the team that they are closest to in front of them.

AL West/Wild Card Odds

To go along with the overall postseason odds, FanGraphs also breaks down the A's odds of winning the AL West, earning a bye, and making it as a Wild Card club.

The Athletics' odds of winning the West again rank fourth in the division, at 8.9%, but considering where they have been the previous four seasons, these odds make it look like they're a juggernaut of a club that should be feared across the land. The Mariners (59%) have the highest odds here, following by the Astros (17.3%) and the Rangers (13%).

All things considered, a solid week could move the A's up behind the Mariners, which is quite interesting.

The A's also have a 5.1% chance of clinching a bye for the first round of the postseason according to the projections.

Finally, they're given a 14.4% chance to clinch a wild-card berth. While that ranks fourth in the division again, they're also right in line with (or ahead of) every team in the AL Central. The Detroit Tigers (15.3%), Kansas City Royals (15.4%) and Minnesota Twins (14.7%) are all right there in the same position as the A's. Part of the reasoning for this being that the Central is wide open.

The A's biggest competition will be coming from a revamped AL East, where every team has better odds than the A's.

This will be an interesting season for the Athletics that could involve a number of moves throughout the season, and it could be the first one in six years that sees them playing postseason games in October.

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