A's Still Short on Vegas Funding, Even With Potential Sale of San Jose Earthquakes

It was reported last night that Athletics owner John Fisher is looking to sell "a control interest" in the San Jose Earthquakes, a team that Sportico values at around $600 million. It's still unknown how much of an interest that would be, given that $301 million is a lot different that a complete sale of the club, but for the purposes of our exercise here today, let's say he's selling the whole shebang.

The last estimate for the cost of the Armadillo Dome in Las Vegas is $1.75 billion, and that was before the persistent threat of tariffs. There is a good chance that the project will cost well over that figure, and likely into the $2 billion range given that construction costs never seem to get less expensive. So let's take a look at the funding that Fisher has, what he could have, and how where that winds up.

In a special session in June of 2023, the Nevada Legislature agreed to provide Fisher and the A's up to $380 million in various forms of public funding. Given that the city of Oakland had cobbled together nearly $1 billion in financing for a much larger project at Howard Terminal, this public funding from Nevada never seemed like a huge amount, but it was a nice starting point. The team has also said that they only need $350 million of that now, however.

From there, Fisher secured $300 million in funding from U.S. Bank and Goldman Sachs. This is a loan from the banks. The Sports Business Journal also reported late last month that concessionaire Aramark is in for at least $175 million. Fisher has also been looking for $550 million in funding from outside investors by offering minority stakes in the A's.

If the $550 million that he's after includes the $175 million (at least) from Aramark, then there would still be a $375 million shortfall from what he's after and what he has. All of those figures add up to $855 million, which includes the team spending all of the public funding available to them. There is a chance that total figure is higher, given what the Aramark deal ends up at.

If Fisher sells complete control of the Earthquakes and receives the full $600 million that the team is estimated at (regardless of taxes being taken out), then he would still be at $1.455 million. That would still be roughly $295 million short of the initial estimate for the Las Vegas ballpark project. It's not an insurmountable total by any means, but it's worth noting that the A's walked away from Oakland over less.

Obviously, Fisher is still looking to sell minority stakes in the A's, and being fairly close--at least to the $1.75 billion threshold--could persuade an investor to help get the deal over the finish line.

Of course, this comes with the big caveats that we don't know whether Fisher is selling the entirety of his shares in the Earthquakes, or if this is to be a fairly sizeable minority stakeholder. Selling $301 million worth of shares in the club would technically give him a minority stake, too, but it wouldn't be as beneficial to getting the deal done in Vegas.

What that figure ends up being could be pivotal in this process.

The other big caveat here is that the total price of the ballpark is expected to exceed $1.75 billion, and if it ends up at $2 billion (or more), then the funding shortfall would still be there. That $295 million deficit would become $545 million at the $2 million mark, and that's while selling the entirety of the Earthquakes.

On the one hand, this is a potential sign that Fisher will do everything he can to actually get this ballpark in Las Vegas built. On the other, he's still going to have to find a way to make the numbers work.

There are plenty of built-in outs for him in this project, like the rising costs of everything, or the fact that tourism is down in the United States, and the A's will be relying heavily on tourism in Las Vegas in order to make the project profitable.

This is either Fisher legitimately going all in on this project and hoping for the best, or an attempt to show that he tried everything before pulling the plug entirely. There is a belief that one way or another this ballpark will happen, with power players in Las Vegas potentially having to drag Fisher across the finish line.

For the rest of those paying attention, they'll believe it when they see it.