Assessing Every Angle of the Tarik Skubal Situation

Although the question of what happens next is a simple one, the layers of the final decision are complex. Instead of pounding the table for one certain outcome, I want to walk through the possibilities, pros and cons, from all angles as a thought exercise and offer the path forward I most prefer.

Understanding Skubal Is Truly Different

There are certain equations we are all familiar with when it comes to team building. Trading the veteran on a rebuilding team for prospects is most common. Trading a player you will not be able to resign to avoid “losing him for nothing” has become more common in recent years.

However, Skubal is the type of elite player that should not be plugged into these equations in the same matter. He’s an outlier. Not just another All-Star that we can compare to previous deals across the league and apply to the Tigers situation. He’s elite enough to to be considered in a different light and handled in a way that ignores the equations we have learned from team building across the league.

Over the past two seasons the Tigers are 42-20 when Skubal is on the mound and 131-131 when he isn’t. Skubal stops losing streaks and can be reason the Tigers have an advantage in a five or seven game playoff series. Not only a backbone of a staff, but the type of pitcher that doesn’t land in your lap all that often.

Outliers come with exceptions to the general rule.

Option 1: Keep and Sign Tarik Skubal

Baseball not having a salary cap makes extension discussions boil down to how much an organization truly wants a player. Sure, budgets come into play, but you can work around budgets. When you had an unexpected car repair that blew up your budget, you found a way, didn’t you?

Detroit is in a position where they have found success, even in the playoffs, without having a large payroll. A number of their major contributors still have a few years before contract discussions of their own while the farm system also contains a number of truly elite prospects.

Meeting Skubal’s contract demands is possible considering how little money is committed to the roster elsewhere. You would lock up the rest of Skubal’s prime years (and then some) while also making a statement not only to the team, but to the city, about how serious you are in building a World Series contender.

Understanding the magnitude of having a pitching like Skubal is crucial. Considering how infrequently talents like this come around making sure yours doesn’t get away is not important to team success and fan buy-in. The money generated alone by jersey and ticket sales from keeping Skubal needs to be considered as well.

The money is going to be tough to stomach no matter if it’s the Tigers or the Dodgers that give him a deal. I’m not going to act like coming up with that level of money is easy for anyone, no matter your net worth. It is certainly a risk.

But, if not now, then when? If Tarik Skubal – Cy Young winner, fierce competitor, leader, and heart of this team – is not worth a splash investment then who is? Detroit is a big enough market with fans who do support the team when the product is worth it. Passing on Skubal’s contract is sending a message that you, Chris Ilitch, will not do everything it takes to give your team the absolute best chance at a World Series.

I’m not asking ownership to fork over money every single offseason to just any good player. But when you invest time and resources into developing one of the best players in baseball, and you have not sunk a lot of money in the team for a number of years, opening the checkbook now can be the right decision.

Option 2: Trade Skubal This Offseason

Moving a player you will not be able to afford prior to their free agency year has become a popular trend around the league. We saw the Milwaukee Brewers do this with Corbin Burnes prior to the 2024 season landing a comp pick (34th overall) along with promising youngsters Joey Ortiz and DL Hall.

In this scenario, the Tigers trade one year of Skubal for several years of major league-ready talent all while avoiding losing out on the contract negotiations next offseason. Considering the holes the Tigers have elsewhere on their roster, I can see why some would want to go this route.

Not only do you add a couple of players who could strengthen the roster and make a more complete team top to bottom, but you keep the financial flexibility to spread that money out to free agents or extensions to other core pieces.

As much as we all love Skubal, it’s hard to ignore the injury history combined with the amount of long-term deals that do not work out for pitchers. The Nationals gave Stephen Strasburg a seven-year, $245 million deal only to see him make eight more starts before retiring. How much did that deal hamper the Nationals and potentially change the way they handled the Juan Soto situation?

If the report saying the gap is $250 million dollars is true, although I think the headline was misleading, trading Skubal allows you to at least address team needs for 2026, although it also creates the biggest need – a legitimate ace.

Let’s say Skubal wants over $400 million and the Tigers meet that offer. What is the trickle down effect? Do they avoid free agents and even move a core player that is close to arbitration in order to offset the money? Are we sitting here wondering why the offense did not improve, or worsened, without much flexibility moving forward?

An important factor in the decision is Skubal’s agent, Scott Boras, and his history of taking players to free agency. Are the Tigers going to outbid the teams who have historically always landed the truly elite free agents? History says no, so why not rip the band-aid off now and get something for him before he hits the open market.

Option 3: Hold For Now, Risk a Return

Of course, the Tigers do not have to do any of the above scenarios. They could elect to pay him his arbitration number and roll into 2026 with him as their ace, coming off back to back divisional round appearances, and push for a World Series in 2026.

In this scenario, the Tigers have to commit somewhere between $16-$20 million (expected) on what would essentially be a one-year deal. No long-term commitment, no $45 million a year, no players coming back in return form a trade. At least not yet.

If the Tigers improve elsewhere and the 2026 season is looking promising, they can keep Skubal all season and get the benefit of him pitching twice in a playoff series, hope for a deep playoff run, and still have the option of signing the extension next offseason, or extending the qualifying offer.

Let’s say the offense doesn’t improve, pitching depth is once again tested, and the Tigers look like the team they showed in the second half of 2025. Skubal immediately becomes the number one trade asset at the deadline. If he’s pitching like we know he can, would the return really be all that different from the offseason package? If so, wouldn’t the 20 starts prior to the deadline to see where your team stands be worth a slightly less return? I think so.

Lastly, what happens if Skubal gets injured or has a down year. I think he would still hit free agency, but there’s a non-zero chance he could accept the qualifying offer for one more season in Detroit at what would still be a discount compared to the average annual salary of a long term deal.

If he declines the QO, Detroit would get a high comp-pick in the next season’s draft which would lead to a player that likely ranks in the systems top 10 prospects.

Final Thoughts

The route I would prefer is the last. You are simply afforded more options with the trade off being a lesser return, either through trade or draft compensation. A lesser return might not be ideal but I still think the return would be impactful.

A deadline move would net a number of prospects or major league-ready players. A comp pick not only gives you a highly ranked draft pick, but it would also mean that Skubal helped Detroit all season and hopefully throughout the playoffs. The Tigers are not in rebuild mode so sacrificing some return for having the best chance at on field success is something I’d sign up for.

Oh yeah, signing him after the season is still in play.

Regardless of what ultimately happens, this one move will determine how fans feel about Scott Harris and Chris Ilitch for the next decade, regardless of what other moves are made. Whichever route the go down they better be right because the organization cannot afford to be wrong on a move of this size again.