Astros’ 2025 Rotation Derailed by Injuries and Disastrous Luck

Season-Ending Rotation: LHP Framber Valdez (13-11, 3.66 ERA, 31 G, 187 K, 68 BB, 1.245 WHIP), RHP Hunter Brown (12-9, 2.43 ERA, 31 G, 206 K, 57 BB, 1.025 WHIP), RHP Jason Alexander (4-2, 3.66 ERA, 14 G, 60 K, 39 BB, 1.248 WHIP), LHP Colton Gordon (6-4, 20 G, 14 GS, 5.34 ERA, 72 K, 21 BB, 1.419 WHIP), RHP Cristian Javier (2-4, 4.62 ERA, 8 G, 34 K, 15 BB, 1.270 WHIP).

Other Notable Starters: LHP Brandon Walter (1-3, 3.35 ERA, 9 G, 52 K, 4 BB, 0.932 WHIP), RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (2-5, 16 G, 13 GS, 6.51 ERA, 61 K, 39 BB, 1.807 WHIP), RHP AJ Blubaugh (3-1, 1.69 ERA, 11 G, 3 GS, 35 K, 11 BB, 0.875 WHIP), RHP Spencer Arrighetti (1-5, 5.35 ERA, 7 G, 31 K, 20 BB, 1.415 WHIP), Hayden Wesneski (1-3, 4.50 ERA, 6 G, 29 K, 6 BB, 1.094 WHIP).

Season Notes

Framber Valdez was an ace once again, throwing 192 innings, and 3.8 bWAR, which was second on the team. He was in the middle of some controversy regarding whether or not he hit his catcher with a fastball out of frustration. During the Astros collapse during the second half of the season, Valdez posted a 6.05 ERA in his final 10 games.

Hunter Brown had a breakout season and was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He was fifth among starters in bWAR with 6.1, eights in strikeouts (206), third in ERA (2.43) and set a career high in innings (185.1). He was an All-Star for the first time, and will likely finish third in AL Cy Young voting.

Jason Alexander was selected off waiver in May and didn't join the team until June 17. At 32-years-old, he quickly became someone the Astros could rely on, posting a 3.66 ERA and 115 ERA+ in 13 starts. He started big games for Houston down the stretch.

Colton Gordon started his first 13 games of the season, posting a 4.74 ERA in 62.2 innings. He was moved to the bullpen where he gave the Astros length while they were dealing with injuries. He went at least five innings in 10 of his starts.

Cristian Javier didn't pitch until August as he was recovering and rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The right-hander struggled, allowing 19 earned runs in 37 innings. He allowed two or more runs in six of eight starts.

AJ Bluabugh was one of the Astros top 30 prospects. He only started three times and din't go more than four innings in any of them. He was lights out in each outing, though, showing his stuff can play at the big league level.

Brandon Walter, Spencer Arrighetti, Hayden Wesneski, Lance McCullers Jr., Ronel Blanco and Luis Garcia all started multiple games over the course of the season, but missed huge chunks of it due to injury.

Under Contract or Team Control

Brown, Gordon, Alexander, McCullers, Walter, Javier, Arrighetti, Wesneski, Blubaugh, Blanco, Garcia

Houston will return almost all of their starters again next season. Most are still on rookie deals or are in arbitration. There will be a huge battle for the rotation come spring training and all of these players will compete. Some will have built in advantages, but it also depends on their health.

Every pitcher but Brown, Alexander and Blubaugh all missed significant time to injury and will need to heal before anything else.

Free Agents

Valdez is the lone Astros free agent starter this year. Since 2022, he has been one of the best lefties in baseball and has thrown 190 or more innings three times and finished top 10 in Cy Young voting three times since then.

He goes deep into games, has playoff experience and doesn't walk a lot of people. The only question teams will have are about the incident with his catcher earlier this season and his disastrous end to the season. In the end, Valdez will likely get a huge contract, but there has been no word of how Houston is expected to handle it.

An Early 2026 Rotation

Brown (Opening Day), Javier, Arrighetti, McCullers Jr., Blubaugh

This is assuming that Valdez doesn't return next season. Either way, Brown will be the ace of this team moving forward. Javier has a spot in the rotation locked fown given his past, but he will need to be healthy if the Astros are going to get anything out of him.

Arrighetti was solid in his rookie season, posting a 10.6 K/9 and 4.53 ERA in 28 starts. He was derailed by injuries in 2025, but he has proved to Houston that he deserves a spot in the rotation.

McCullers and Blubaugh are educated guesses at this point. Both Hayden Wesneski and Ronel Blanco underwent elbow surgery this season, so they won't be a part of the rotation at all next year. Given the remaining options, the two right-handers make the most sense to round it out.

McCullers had his worst season, posting a 6.51 ERA in 55.1 innings, but the strikeout numbers are still present. If he gets fully healthy next year, he could be on the path back to being a successful starter. As for Blubaugh, he impressed in the rotation and out of the bullpen in a short stint this season. He should be fighting for a rotation spot right out of spring.