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Astros Get Surprising 2026 Prediction Following Quiet Offseason

Originally posted on Houston Astros on SI
By Scott Roche | Last updated Feb 4, 2026 5:00 PM ET

It has been an interesting offseason to say the least for the Houston Astros. It appears that general manager Dana Brown has moved on from left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez. It is a little surprising that Valdez remains a free agent with a week before pitchers and catchers have their first workouts.

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There are some theories as to why he remains a free agent, but he is the top remaining pitcher on the market. As far as replacing him at the top of the rotation behind Hunter Brown, is predicted to be Cristian Javier, Tatsuya Imai, Lance McCullers Jr., Mike Burrows and Ryan Weiss by Joel Reuter of Bleacher Report.

There are two new names in the group, Iami and Burrows, who were added this offseason. Houston was a surprising destination for Imai, while Burrows was acquired as part of a three-team deal where Dana Brown gave up some of his top prospects.

All of those moves remain to be seen if they can help Houston return to the playoffs in 2026 with enough pitching, but one former MLB GM believes the moves could be good enough to get Houston back to the postseason.

Astros Get Surprising Prediction for 2026

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Jim Bowden of The Athletic (subscription required) graded each team's offseason and predicted where they will finish in their divisions this year. His grade for the Astros was a C+, which seems about right and he predicted Houston will finish in second place in the American League West Division.

"The Astros will let free agent Framber Valdez walk and are replacing him by gambling on two pitchers who played overseas last year, Tatsuya Imai and Ryan Weiss. They also bolstered their rotation by acquiring Mike Burrows from the Pirates in a three-team deal. How much success that trio has this year might ultimately decide whether Houston can get back to the postseason,'' Bowden wrote.

Now, Bowden's biggest question facing Houston entering the season is one that is worth keeping an eye on. Both Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada are entering the final year of their contracts and that is never good, having a GM and manager working on the final year of a deal with security in place. That generally never ends well.

Extending both Dana Brown and Espada is going to be a topic as the season goes along, especially when things are not going well early in the season.

It remains to be seen if the moves made this winter are good enough to vault Houston back into the playoffs, but there is no doubt that a second-place finish is what a lot of people around the organization will take after a tough ending to the 2025 season that saw the Astros miss the postseason.