Astros Projected To Make Yet Another Comeback From Slow Start To Make Playoffs

The Houston Astros have made a habit of getting off to a slow start in the regular season, building an early hole to climb out of.

Each time that has occurred, they have found a way to get on track and make a push not only to make the postseason but win the American League West.

Coming into the 2025 regular season, the benefit of the doubt was no longer being given to the Astros because of the massive changes their roster underwent over the winter.

Third baseman Alex Bregman, right fielder Kyle Tucker, starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi and relief pitcher Ryan Pressly were all gone, departing in free agency or being traded.

That is a lot of talent and production to compensate for, especially with Bregman playing at an MVP level with the Boston Red Sox.

Houston made some additions, signing first baseman Christian Walker and acquiring Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and star prospect Cam Smith from the Chicago Cubs in the Tucker blockbuster.

In typical Astros fashion, a slow start occurred again, but this one wasn’t as big of a surprise given the loss of talent.

But, as the case always is, they battled back and have a 23-22 record entering play on May 18. The question is, will they be able to continue building upon that success and make a playoff push?

As shared by Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report in a recent piece ranking the teams by their chances of making the playoffs, Houston is in a good spot.

What Are the Houston Astros Odds of Making the Playoffs?

They landed at No. 8, the top team in the tier titled “Coin Flips, But Leaning ‘Yes Postseason'.” At the time of the article being published, the team was 21-20, with Baseball-Reference giving them a shockingly high 85.8% chance of making the playoffs.

FanGraphs had them at 50% and PECOTA was just above them at 51.7%.

Since the piece was published, the team has gone 3-2, not making much of a change in the odds.

It is interesting the disparity that exists; what does Baseball-Reference know that makes them so much more confident than the other outlets?

They could just be counting on the team’s recent track record continuing, Houston routinely warms up along with the weather and is in the mix atop the division.

With the American League being wide open, every team has at least 20 losses outside of the division leaders, one streak could drastically change a team’s outlook.

If the Astros can get their expected contributors in the lineup on track, they have the firepower and experience to push for a spot in the postseason.