Atlanta Unlikely to Capitalize on New MLB Incentive Program

The Atlanta Braves are solidly in the middle of a World Series contention window. 

And sometimes, that makes it hard to have patience with your young players. 

Baseball America recently confirmed the 96 prospects that are eligible for MLB's Prospect Promotion Incentive program, which rewards MLB teams with draft picks for promoting Top 100 prospects that go on to win Rookie of the Year or be top finishers for either Cy Young or MVP in their respective leagues. 

There's three qualifications to earn those draft picks, which would come after the first round: 

1) The player must be on two of three selected Top 100 Prospect lists, with Baseball America, ESPN, and MLB Pipeline being the chosen prospect evaluation outlets. 

2) The player must be rookie-eligible on Opening Day, with less than 60 days of MLB Service Time. 

3) The player must accrue one year of service time as a rookie, defined as 172 days on the roster. To accomplish this, given the 187 day MLB regular season, a prospect that doesn't debut on Opening Day must be called up within the first two weeks of the season and remain in the major leagues for the duration of the season. (Time on the injured list counts as MLB service time.)

If a player has met all three criteria and goes on to either win Rookie of the Year in their respective league or is a top three finisher for Cy Young or MVP prior to reaching arbitration, the team is awarded a 1st round pick in the MLB Draft the following season. 

To date, three teams have been awarded PPI picks in the first round - the Seattle Mariners in 2023 (Julio Rodriguez' 2022 ROTY), and both the Arizona Diamondbacks (Corbin Carroll 2023 ROTY) and Baltimore Orioles (Gunnar Henderson 2023 ROTY) in 2024. 

Atlanta has two prospects eligible for PPI picks in AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep, by virtue of their placement on top of the three top 100 lists. 

But the team's not likely to earn those picks, as of now. 

Why it's unlikely Atlanta earns a PPI pick

There's a few reasons why Atlanta's unlikely to get a PPI pick for either Smith-Shawver or Hurston Waldrep in 2024. 

The first is the likelihood of a pitcher winning Rookie of the Year - only three pitchers have done it in the last decade. Jacob DeGrom won the NL award for the New York Mets in 2014, Michael Fulmer won the AL award in 2016 for the Detroit Tigers, and reliever Devin Williams won the NL award for the Milwaukee Brewers in the shortened 2020 season. 

There's been some close calls - Atlanta's own Spencer Strider was the runner-up to fellow Brave Michael Harris II in 2022, while Cleveland Guardians starter Tanner Bibee was the runner-up to Henderson last season in the AL. 

But it's become increasingly unlikely, in the era of load management, six man rotations, and "quick hooks", for starting pitchers to accumulate enough innings to win the award. 

The other reason is simply opportunity - as a World Series contending team, the Braves have build a robust and deep roster with few holes. 

Atlanta went out and acquired Chris Sale this offseason, pushing 2023 All-Star Bryce Elder to the #5 spot in the rotation (although he's not guaranteed to have that spot as we enter spring training, per Alex Anthopoulos.) It's significantly harder for either Smith-Shawver or Waldrep to break into the starting rotation in Atlanta than it would be with most other teams, owing to the team's depth. 

Additionally, even if one of those two prospects does make the Opening Day rotation, it's increasingly unlikely they'll stay there all season - a combination of workloads and ineffectiveness could prompt Atlanta to make a change. 

Smith-Shawver only pitched a combined 87.1 regular season innings last season between MLB and the minors, while Waldrep pitched 131 between college and the minors.

Of the players listed above that won or were runners-up, Fulmer pitched 159.0 in 2016, DeGrom pitched 140.1 (with a 2.69 ERA!) in 2014, and Bibee pitched in 142.0 last season. Strider gives some hope, with only 131.2 innings in 2022, but put up an ERA of 2.67 and still didn't win the award, so not too much hope. 

(Yes, Williams won it with only 27.0 innings, but he both put up a 0.33 ERA and was a reliever in the shortened 2020 season and so it's tough to extrapolate anything out of this.)

Additionally, even if one of those starters logs enough innings to get themselves into ROTY contention, it's increasingly unlikely they'll sustain the performance all season. Given Atlanta's rotation depth and the competition level of the NL East, two or three consecutive bad starts could result in the team needing to change out that 5th starter for a fresh option, simply to avoid dropping too many games in what should be a closely-contested NL East. 

So while an extra 1st round draft pick (and the extra bonus pool that comes with it) would be nice, don't get your hopes up. It's increasingly unlikely that a starting pitcher would have an opportunity in the modern game to take the ball enough and perform well enough to make it through an entire season. 

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