Simply put, Austin Riley hasn’t been good enough for the Braves since the club made him the highest-paid player in franchise history.
Riley and the Braves agreed to a 10-year, $212 million contract on August 1st in 2022, amid the slugger’s best season as a pro. He finished with a 141 OPS+, thanks to 38 home runs and 39 doubles, both career marks. It culminated in a sixth-place finish in the MVP voting.
It looked like the Braves had just found the next cornerstone of their franchise, and the 2023 campaign affirmed those feelings. Even if Riley’s numbers dipped, it was marginal. He still blasted 37 homers and 32 doubles, good for an OPS+ of 130, and once again finished in the top seven of the MVP voting.
Riley had basically became a lock to hit 35+ home runs, 30+ doubles, 90+ RBIs, record more than 6.0 WAR, and finish in the top 10 of the MVP voting. Or so we thought.
Riley’s 2024 campaign was cut short, but he finished with his lowest batting average, OPS+, and slugging percentage since becoming a full-time starter. The hope was that those struggles were just a part of the Braves’ 2024 season from hell. That hasn’t been the case. Through 56 games, Riley has an OPS+ that is 16% above the league average, but that’s not what you’re expecting from the highest-paid player for one of the most storied franchises in MLB history.
He’s accrued 1.2 bWAR in about a little more than a third of the season, which puts him on pace for around half of the WAR he accrued during the 2021, 2022, and 2023 seasons. But the worst part is his performance in high-leverage situations.
You expect your best players to show up when the lights are brightest, and that’s the exact opposite of what Austin Riley has done this season. He owns a .629 OPS situations deemed ‘high leverage’ by Baseball Reference. That mark is 19% below league average and 38% lower than his overall OPS.
The Braves need more out of everyone. This isn’t meant to put all of the blame on Austin Riley. Lord knows, it’s not all his fault. Alex Anthopoulos deserves blame. Brian Snitker does too, along with other stars like Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies.
But let’s not pretend the expectations that come with being the highest-paid player in Braves history are the same as those of Albies, Harris, or any other player on the team right now.
He has to be better, and Austin Riley would tell you the same.
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