Best MLB parlay for Thu., July 21: Targeting a pair of unders

The All-Star break is officially over, which means it's time to get back to business and place some MLB parlay bets. 

Thursday's slate is quite unique because there's six games, but there's not one, but two doubleheaders. The Yankees play the Astros twice on Thursday, and the Tigers and Athletics will play twice as well. 

Scoring is down so far this season, and that trend should carry over in to the beginning of the second half. Betting doubleheaders are tough simply because most result in a split, so betting the moneyline is risky. And knowing whether the game is going to be close or a blowout is tough, too. However, the over/under offers a lot of low-risk options. Thursday's parlay focuses on the first game of each doubleheader and features two over/under legs.

The Parlay: Yankees/Astros Total Runs under 10 and Tigers/Athletics Total Runs under 9 (+102 odds via Barstool)

Bet $100 to win $102

Game 1 Yankees vs. Astros Total Runs under 10 

Not only are the Yankees and Astros both in first place in their respective divisions, they're also the two best teams in the American League. And while both teams are more than capable of scoring nine runs in a single game, that hasn't been the case so far when these two teams play. Houston and New York have faced each other five times in the first half, and four of the five games finished with a combined run total of nine or less. 

I know the Yankees lead all of baseball in runs, but the Yankees and Astros have also given up the second and third fewest runs in baseball. 

Both teams had a ton of All-Stars -- six for New York, five for Houston -- and I'm expecting some of them to be a little fatigued due to not getting the full break. Not to mention All-Stars Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez didn't play on Tuesday due to injuries. So, their status for Thursday's doubleheader is up in the air. 

Alvarez very well could be activated from the 10-day injured list before Thursday's doubleheader, but what about Altuve? Was the All-Star break enough time off for him? We'll have to wait and see. And don't forget Michael Brantley is still sidelined with a right shoulder injury. Meanwhile, All-Star Game MVP Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge each started and received two at-bats on Tuesday. I wouldn't be surprised if they do a lot of swinging and missing in Thursday's first game.

Plus, the Astros have hit on the under 63.6% of the time -- best in baseball. And that trend has been hot as of late. The final score in Houston's last five games has been eight or less, and seven of their last eight games has been nine or less. This leg worries me more than the Tigers vs. Athletics game, but with both teams getting such high-quality performances from their starters, and with the Astros playing in a ton of low-scoring games of late, I'm willing to take the chance.

Game 1 Tigers vs. Athletics Total Runs under 9 

This leg is definitely much less risky than the Yankees vs. Astros one. These two teams have been bad offensively all season. In fact, Detroit has scored the fewest runs in baseball and guess who follows? Yup, you guessed it. Oakland. Both teams are killing it on the under this season -- Detroit 61.4%, second-best, Oakland 58.1%, third best -- even more reason to bet the under in this one.  

Not only do these teams not score, they don't hit for power either. Now factor in where the game is being played -- Oakland Coliseum -- the second-most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the bigs, increasing your chances of a low-scoring game even more. 

It really doesn't even matter who's starting for either team -- these teams struggle offensively. And that's putting it kindly. I'm aware both teams have been playing in some higher scoring games of late, but that doesn't matter. This isn't math where a negative and a negative make a positive. Neither produces all that many runs, which means this is going to be a low-scoring contest.