Blue Jays: An overview of the 2026 arbitration cases

According to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, the Blue Jays filed at $4.4 million, and Lauer filed at $5.75 million. Because the Blue Jays are a file and trial team, the two parties will head to arbitration, unless there’s a multi-year extension. That doesn’t seem likely given that the 2026 season is Lauer’s final year of arbitration. The arbitrator has to choose between giving Lauer $5.75 million or $4.4 million, no in between.

At the end of the season, MLB Trade Rumors released their arbitration projections, and they expected Lauer to earn $4.4 million. Spotrac had him worth $5.3 million. It’s also worth noting that before departing for Korea in 2024, Lauer was earning $5.075 million in his second arbitration year.

Last season, Lauer posted a 3.18 ERA and 3.85 FIP in 104.2 innings pitched. Of the 28 appearances he made, 15 were starts, as he filled into the rotation when the Blue Jays desperately needed someone too early in the season. It could go either way.

Regardless of what the arbitrator chooses, the 2026 season is Lauer’s final year of arbitration, meaning he’ll be a free agent at the end of the season (again, barring an extension). It’s the same case for Varsho, while Clement and Heineman have two more years of arbitration (free agents after 2028).

With these signings, the Blue Jays are quickly approaching the third luxury tax threshold of $304 million. Spotrac estimates them to be at a little under $295.37 million (with Lauer winning the case) so signing a big bat like Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette will surely push them above that.

It’ll be interesting to see what else the Blue Jays do this season.