Blue Jays’ best case scenarios – Daulton Varsho

While the Blue Jays have quietly received a lot of value from Daulton Varsho over the last two seasons, the vast majority of it has come on the defensive side of the field. There’s a very good chance that will always be the case for the career of the 2024 Gold Glove winner, but that doesn’t mean there can’t be more potential in his bat as well.

Back when the Blue Jays acquired Varsho from the Diamondbacks in December of 2022, the now 28-year-old was coming off a 4.8 bWAR season that saw him slash .235/.302/.446 with 27 home runs, 23 doubles, 74 RBI, and 16 stolen bases across 151 games played. It was in 2022 that the Diamondbacks realized Varsho had more value as an outfielder than in his former position as a catcher, as he was an elite defender in the outfield and a below-average receiver behind the plate. That was also his first season as a full-time starter in the big leagues, and there were all kinds of reasons to believe that his offence would take a step forward after he no longer had to spend time and energy worrying about all that comes with being a catcher at the highest level.

Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case so far during Varsho’s first two seasons in Toronto. In 2023 he slashed .220/.285/.389 with 20 home runs, 61 RBI, 23 doubles, and 16 stolen bases across 158 games played, taking a step back with the bat in several ways with his new team. Last season was more of the same as he finished with a line of .214/.293/.407 with 18 home runs, 58 RBI, 20 doubles, and 10 stolen bases in 136 games. He also posted a career high with 5.0 bWAR in 2024 thanks to his stellar defence, but it was another discouraging season in the batter’s box.

While I don’t think it would be wise to count on more offensive production from Varsho over the next two years before he hits free agency, I don’t think it’s a stretch to hope for or even project some improvement. Unfortunately the Wisconsin native likely won’t be ready to start the regular season on time after having rotator cuff surgery on September 23rd last year, but he should be ready to join the roster early enough into the 2025 campaign. Speaking of his shoulder injury, that may at least partially explain his late-season struggles before shutting it down in September, as the original injury happened sometime in August. However, looking at his game log from last season makes me wonder if something happened to him around mid-June as well, as his slugging percentage really started to dip around that time after a pretty solid start to the year.

Despite what went wrong for Varsho last season, I’m cautiously optimistic that he may take a few steps in the right direction now that he’s working with a fresh slate, and a surgically repaired shoulder. Now that Kevin Kiermaier has retired and joined the Blue Jays as their newest special assistant, Varsho won’t have to wonder where he’s playing on any given day. Those kinda variables matter when you’re trying to find your groove over a gruelling 162-game season. I’m not suggesting that he’s going to turn into Barry Bonds overnight, but I do think there are reasons to expect improvement for the 2017 2nd round pick.

The Blue Jays have had several players break out in their late 20s across their franchise history, with names like José Bautista, Edwin Encarnación, and Josh Donaldson not finding their All-Star form until they neared 30 years old. I’m not suggesting that Varsho will morph into that kind of star hitter, but I don’t think he’s past the point of being capable of leaping to the next level as a hitter. The eye test tells us that there’s plenty of power in his bat when he connects, but the key will be connecting more often than he did in 2024 when he had a career-low barrel percentage.

The thing is, because of the elite defence that he brings to the table he doesn’t even have to take a huge leap in the batter’s box to become a 6.0 WAR player or better. If he can produce 25-30 home runs and 75+ RBI as he did in his last season as a Diamondback, and do it out of the bottom third of the lineup for the Jays, that would be a pretty massive help and it’s not out of the question at all. In an even more ideal scenario, that power increase would be accompanied by a 30 or more point boost in his on-base percentage, which is just .289 during his time as a Blue Jay. For a player as athletically gifted as Varsho, and someone MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson called “one of the most dedicated players you’ll come across”, those feel like attainable goals.

While it’s always frustrating to hear Ross Atkins talk about “internal improvement” with the Blue Jays roster, in the case of Daulton Varsho I think it’s reasonable to hope for and even expect. If they can get even 10% more from their starting centre fielder, that’s the kind of thing that can make a difference in what should be an extremely competitive AL East in 2025.