Blue Jays Facing Troubling Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Development

The 27-year-old has played in 63 games and is batting .292 with a .383 on-base percentage and a .764 OPS. He has only 3 home runs and 25 RBI.

The feared slugger has lost all of his thump this season. His 90.7 MPH average exit velocity is well below his career norms. His hard hit rate (batted balls above 95 EV) of 45% is also well below his usual clip.

Guerrero Jr. is making the most contact of his career, at an 82.2% rate. He’s also striking out a lot less than in previous years. With that said, most Toronto fans would probably be fine with the strikeouts for the big power numbers if this was the alternative.

A recent post on X by Daniele Franceschi captured fans’ frustration well. “I’m starting to wonder if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is going to reach double-digit homers in 2026. Some of these swing decisions are inexcusable.”

The biggest problem has been those swing decisions. Guerrero Jr. has a chase rate of 31%, the highest of his career, beating 2022’s 30.5%. While he’s making a good amount of contact with these pitches off the plate he often wraps into weak contact instead of waiting for pitches to crush in the zone.

The concept of such a revered hitter failing to reach 10 home runs over a full season at age 27 is almost unfathomable. Guerrero Jr. has slammed at least 23 in every season since 2021.

The seventh-year man is in year one of a 14-year, $500 million contract with the Blue Jays. His play right now does not indicate that of someone getting paid nearly 36 million dollars a year.

While the club waits for its injured list to shrink, they need Vladdy to start producing as soon as possible.