Blue Jays: Max Scherzer and the curse of the first inning

The Toronto Blue Jays needed a big win last night, given the close race in the AL East, and it was veteran Max Scherzer being tasked with the moment.

Scherzer was coming off the worst start of his big league career, lasting just 2/3 of an inning against the Kansas City Royals. The right-hander allowed seven hits, seven earned runs, two homers, and one walk before manager John Schneider stopped the bleeding. The task would be difficult against a pesky Red Sox squad, and the AL East rival gave him fits through five innings, collecting ten hits while scoring four runs, three of which came in the first inning, in the eventual 7-1 loss.

This outing was tough for several reasons, but Scherzer’s first-inning setbacks have not been limited to just this one contest.

This year, Scherzer owns a 12.96 ERA in the first inning through 17 starts, allowing 24 earned runs off 33 hits. These stats reflect the three earned runs he surrendered against the Red Sox last night, and before that, he went into the outing with a 12.06 ERA through 15 2/3 innings, allowing 21 earned runs. Opponents posted a .384/.438/.753 slash line with a 1.191 OPS during those 16 starts (not including last night), and seven of his 19 home runs this season have come in the first inning.

Scherzer’s struggles with the first inning can also be reflected when he faces the top of the opposing team’s lineup. Although this data is a bit skewed because he faces the top four batters multiple times throughout the game, the first inning is what particularly gives him trouble.

The following inning sees Scherzer improve dramatically as he settles down and faces bats further down the lineup, authoring a 0.56 ERA through 16 innings, allowing just five hits and one earned run this season. He sits between the 2.90-4.00 mark between the third to fifth innings, and struggles again in the sixth inning, where he has allowed 10 hits and eight earned runs (where the top of the order would see him again for a third time).

So what does this lead to? Does Scherzer earn a spot on the postseason roster, regardless of whether it’s the Wild Card or ALDS? Do the Jays have to work with an opener moving forward?

These are legitimate questions that Schneider and co. will need to figure it out, mostly because outside of the first inning struggles, Scherzer isn’t having a great time finishing the campaign.

Through four starts in September, Scherzer owns a 10.20 ERA through 15 innings of work, allowing 17 hits off of 24 hits while walking seven. That’s an uptick across the board, and while he did strike out 20 batters this last month, opposing bats are teeing off on his pitches (.348/.408/.623 with a 1.031 OPS). Whether it’s because he is tipping pitches again due to his glove placement or a few too many mistake pitches, opposing bats are barrelling the right-hander (12.4%), and he is working with a -10 pitching run value.