Blue Jays trade deadline target: Michael Soroka

Working with a four-pitch mix, Soroka’s fastball is the most used offering (45%), but his slurve is the most effective pitch, producing a +9 run value this season. The breaking pitch has held opponents to a .135 xBA and a .205 xSLG while producing a 38.6% whiff rate and a 43.9% strikeout rate as well. He mixes in a changeup and sinker to round out the arsenal, but the slurve is his go-to pitch.

While Soroka’s ERA is a bit high, the underlying numbers are strong if you remove a few outliers. A seven-run outing against the Boston Red Sox in early July inflated his ERA above the 5.00 mark, but this season, he has mostly sat in the 3-4 earned run range per game (eight of his 15 starts). Through his last three starts, he’s allowed just four earned runs through 14 2/3 innings with 13 strikeouts, producing a 2.45 ERA in the process while not allowing a single home run. The Nationals have struggled to give him any run support this year, hence the gaudy 3-8 record, but Soroka’s numbers are consistent with a back-end arm that should receive some interest this trade deadline.

Contract Status

Soroka is a pure rental, with his one-year pact with the Nationals set to expire at the season’s end. Signing for $9 million this past winter, any team that acquires the right-hander will likely be on the hook for roughly $3-4 million that remains.

How does Soroka help the Blue Jays?

If the Jays are looking for a depth arm that can make starts as needed or provide depth in the bullpen, then Soroka is the right man for the job.

He put up strong numbers to finish the 2024 campaign in the White Sox relief corps following his return from the IL (three earned runs allowed through 11 2/3 innings), and he’s currently riding a hot streak in the Nationals rotation, should the Blue Jays choose to use him there.

Eric Lauer has slotted in nicely with the Jays’ rotation and acquiring Soroka likely doesn’t usurp him from that role right now, but considering the Blue Jays starters are on the veteran side, having Soroka lurking in the bullpen, which has its fair share of injury woes, isn’t a bad idea to have in the back pocket.

The risk is that Soroka will find himself on the IL, as he has dealt with injuries for most of his career and missed time earlier this season with a biceps strain. It’s an issue that has dogged the Jays’ bullpen this season as well.

Overall, it’s a low-risk move for the Jays to add someone like Soroka to the big league roster in at least a bullpen capacity with the ability to spot start and provides more stability for a team looking to make the postseason again this year.