Let me just say this up front before it gets lost in the shuffle.
I love the way that Boston Red Sox' outfielder Jarren Duran plays the game. He's a solid defender, a powerful runner, he plays hard and his athleticism is a real game-changer. I wish the Red Sox had nine Jarren Duran's in the lineup, and if they did, they probably wouldn't be 30-34 and one of the most disappointing teams in the league.
That said, a trade of Jarren Duran makes sense, and we know of at least one team that is poking around.
There's one reason that a trade is obvious, and there are others that require more looking under the hood.
This goes without saying. Anthony is the No. 1 prospect in baseball and right now he's blocked by Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu. Not to mention that the team has Masataka Yoshida still under contract and his presence will complicate things even further once he returns from his injury.
The team could trade Rafaela, but they gave him a $50 million contract before the 2024 season. Does a team want to acquire that kind of contract? Sure, they could trade Abreu, but he's got 13 home runs right now, has been productive, is a Gold Glover, and is under contract through 2029. He won't even hit arbitration until 2027, making him very affordable.
Is that a guy that the Red Sox want to deal away? I think not.
Look, the Boston Red Sox don't need to worry about money, but it's simple math here. Abreu is 25, about to be 26, and affordable for several more years.
Duran is 28, about to be 29, and is already making $3.85 million in arbitration this year. He'll continue to go up for the next three offseasons, and will make significantly more than Abreu. If you can deal an older and more expensive player, and get a good return, that's generally the smarter option.
JARREN DURAN STEALS HOME pic.twitter.com/mnWJPQ5HUR
— MLB (@MLB) April 26, 2025
Look, I don't really care about the money, what I care about is the following. How will Duran age? He's almost 29, he plays extremely hard, and his game is predicated on speed and the power used to generate that speed. At what point will he lose that speed, or that power? And if he does, then how valuable is he really to Boston? Given that he'll be 32 years old by the time his rookie contract ends, I don't see the Red Sox giving him big money with those athleticism questions looming down the road.
If you're not going to give him the big money, and if you can avoid the bigger arbitration money, wouldn't trading him be feasible before the athleticism wanes and you're stuck with the bigger payments and a declining player?
Of course, I could be wrong, and Duran could stay healthy and productive for years, and maybe the Red Sox will elect to keep him and be proven right. But if you need to break the logjam in the outfield, Duran looks like the piece to move.
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