Braves selection dubbed biggest reach of the first round

The Braves have constantly placed an emphasis on pitching throughout the years in the MLB Draft, a formula that’s clearly worked for them, as few teams have had as much success as them over the last three decades.

They went away from that approach this year, however, selecting three athletic shortstops in the first three rounds. The first being Las Vegas high school product Tate Southisene, who Keith Law of The Athletic dubbed the biggest reach of the entire first round.

“Tate Southisene has his fans — scouts love the kid, as they did his brother, Ty, in last year’s draft — but Atlanta’s first-round pick was the biggest reach of the round for me,” Law wrote. “I don’t think there’s a plus tool here; he has a decent enough swing, but he has some swing-and-miss issues against breaking pitches and changeups, and I don’t see great adjustability in his approach right now. He is a plus runner and could move to center, which would help his value, but I don’t think there’s enough hit tool probability or upside here for Atlanta to take him with the 21st pick.”

For a couple of reasons, Law’s comments should be taken with a grain of salt. First and foremost, absolutely nobody knows how Southisene is going to develop. It’s hard enough to project prospects that are on the cusp of the majors. It’s nearly impossible to predict how a player’s career will turn out just months after he graduated high school.

Additionally, the MLB draft isn’t like other drafts, where it’s simply about taking the best player available every time you’re on the clock. Each pick comes with a slot value, and each team only has a certain amount they can spend in each draft. By over-drafting players in the first round and paying them under their slot value, it leaves teams with more money to spend on better players later in the draft. That brings an entirely new element of strategy into each round.

The Braves covet Southisene’s athleticism, versatility, and believe in his hit tool long-term. If he ends up signing below slot value, perhaps Keith Law will change his tune.