Braves Today's 2024 Atlanta Braves prospect rankings, numbers 20-16

Between the promotions of young players and the frequent trades to upgrade the major league roster, the farm system of the Atlanta Braves is widely considered to have fallen into the bottom third in baseball as far as quality and quantity.

But here at Braves Today, we're bullish on both Atlanta's talent in the minor leagues and the organization's reputation and track record of developing that talent.

We just updated our farm system rankings for the 2024 season; here's our scouting profiles for numbers 20 through 16 on the list, headlined by multiple pitchers that have already debuted in MLB and perhaps the toolsiest outfielder in the entire system.

(Criteria used for prospect eligibility is: less than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days on the MLB roster)

#20: RHP Allan Winans

Entry to the organization: 2021 Rule 5 draft (minor league portion); originally a 17th-round pick in the 2018 MLB Draft by the New York Mets
2023 Production: 23 AAA appearances (17 starts): 9-4, 2.85 ERA in 126.1 IP w/ 113 Ks (8.1 K/9), 36 BBs (2.6 BB/9), 11 HRs allowed (0.8 HR/9).
6 MLB starts: 1-2, 5.29 ERA in 32.1 IP w/ 34 Ks (9.5 K/9), 8 BBs (2.2 BB/9), 5 HRs (1.4 HR/9)    

Scouting report: The 28 year-old Winans finally got to make his debut in 2023 and seized the opportunity, with two quality starts in his six outings. He's a higher floor, lower ceiling option, owing to his less than stellar velocity. Winans throws both two and four-seam fastballs, sitting around 90-mph with great extension that allow them to play up slightly from their 6th-percentile velo. The sinker has decent arm-side run and serves as more of a groundball-inducing option than a swing-and-miss pitch, enhanced by his premium control. Winans' primary whiff pitch is a changeup, thrown in the low-80s with great tumble and location. He also can induce chase from lefties with a low-80s slider that he primarily throws down and in, in an ideal scenario. 

While the overall ceiling is limited because of the velocity, Winans is a useful depth option for spot starts thanks to his control and sequencing, provided he's protected from facing a lineup too often (like asking him to face the Mets in consecutive starts, where he was rocked in the second).   

#19: RHP Blake Burkhalter

Entry to the organization: 2022 MLB Draft, Round 2 (Auburn University)
2023 Production: N/A (Tommy John surgery)

Scouting report: Burkhalter is a bulldog of a reliever, standing just six foot tall but with a fastball/cutter combo that absolutely destroys opposing hitters. The heater touches 99, with the combo of a low release point and a relatively small vertical approach angle that make it ply up in the zone. He pairs it with a low 90s cutter, taught to him by former Braves starter Tim Hudson (who was his college pitching coach) and a mid-80s changeup that's decent, but not amazing, with some good movement back to the arm-side. 

Announced as a starter at the draft, "Burky" is destined to return back to a relief role and could climb through the system quickly if the stuff returns to its previous form after Tommy John. 

#18: LHP Dylan Dodd

Entry to the organization: 2021 MLB Draft, Round 3 (SE Missouri State)
2023 Production: 16 AAA appearances (14 starts): 4-6, 5.91 ERA in 742 IP w/ 67 Ks (3.6 K/9), 30 BBs (3.6 BB/9), 14 HRs (1.7 HR/9).
7 MLB starts: 2-2, 7.60 ERA in 34.1 IP w/ 15 Ks (3.9 K/9), 12 BBs (3.1 BB/9), 9 HRs (2.4 BB/9). 
4 AFL starts: 0-1, 6.16 ERA in 19 IP w/ 20 Ks (9.3 K/9), 6 BBs (2.8 BB/9), 5 HRs (2.4 HR/9)   

Scouting report: Dodd, who struggled with health and ineffectiveness in 2023, needs to get back to the above-average strike throwing if he wants to cement himself as a legitimate big league option. At his best, like in spring training (1-0 record, 2.00 ERA w/ 20 Ks and 4 BBs in 18 innings), he pounds the strike zone with a four pitch mix. But if his strike percentage goes down and/or his locations falter, the lack of movement on his pitches leads him to get rocked. 

For those pitches, it's a low-90s fastball that can touch 96, but sits around 92. It's most frequently paired with an low-80s slider that gets good swing and miss, as well as a low-80s changeup and a mid-80s cutter that isn't thrown enough. Improvement in any of the areas of pitch velocity, movement, or fewer control lapses can get him back into a back-end starting role. 

#17: RHP Lucas Braun

Entry to the organization: 2023 MLB Draft, Round 6 (Cal State - Northridge)
2023 Production: 6 A/A+ starts: 0-2, 2.67 ERA in 27 IP w/ 32 Ks (10.7 K/9), 5 BBs (1.7 BB/9), 2 HRs (1.1 HR/9)

Scouting report: Braun had a great professional debut, coming in second only to fellow Braves prospect Hurston Waldrep in both innings (27) and strikeouts (23) amongst 2023 draftees. His best asset is his control - his walk rate was under 5% in his limited MiLB sample. The pitch mix doesn't immediately jump off the page - a low-90s fastball with an average-looking curveball and slider, plus a changeup for lefties, but the pitch characteristics are great. The fastball has both above-average life up in the zone (17 inches of induced vertical break) plus nearly a foot of horizontal movement, making it tough to square up. The changeup gets good arm-side movement and drop, while both the curve and slider tunnel well and get located well. 

It's an appealing package that should play in a starting role, although given his listed 6'0, 185-lb frame and the fact he looks a bit smaller than that, there's always the chance Atlanta moves him to a relief role out of workload concerns. I sure hope not, because he's an ideal starting package that can have a high ceiling with a little more extra velo velocity or individual pitch improvement.  

#16: OF Isaiah Drake

Entry to the organization: 2023 MLB Draft, Round 5 (prep)
2023 Production: 18 Rk G: .221/.312/.279 w/ 0 HRs, 2 XBHs, 8 BBs to 29 Ks, 9/11 SBs  

Scouting report: Drake's a classic "prep speedster outfielder", a very common profile in the lower minors, but despite his post-draft struggles, there's reason to believe he's got a better than average chance to work out. Both in MLB Draft League action and in rookie ball, it's legitimate 80-grade speed from Drake, but that speed also covered for occasional lapses in defensive reads, routes, and reactions out in center field. The arm was a cannon, though (measurements of 93 mph), and the work ethic and tools are there to turn into a plus defender. 

From an offensive standpoint, Drake's youth was evident (he only turned 18 right before the draft), but there's still plenty to like from the lefty. It's a rather compact swing, with good bat speed and a quick (and quiet) pre-swing load. He did try to pull the ball a bit too much, but some improvements to the approach and the expected strength gains should have Drake as a high OBP threat that can get to at least average homer production while also threatening opposing defenses on the basepaths.  

(Special thanks to our friends over at Locked On MLB Prospects for their help with this list - check them out on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.)

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