Braves Today's 2024 Atlanta Braves prospect rankings, the top five

Between the promotions of young players and the frequent trades to upgrade the major league roster, the farm system of the Atlanta Braves is widely considered to have fallen into the bottom third in baseball as far as quality and quantity.

But here at Braves Today, we're bullish on both Atlanta's talent in the minor leagues and the organization's reputation and track record of developing that talent.

We just updated our farm system rankings for the 2024 season; here's our scouting profiles for the top five players on the list, all pitchers that we think could start playoff games for the team if everything breaks right.  

(Criteria used for prospect eligibility is: less than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days on the MLB roster)

5: RHP JR Ritchie

Entry to the organization: 2022 MLB Draft, Round 1 (prep)
2023 Production: 4 Single-A starts: 0-1, 5.40 ERA in 13.1 IP w/ 25 Ks (16.9 K/9), 3 BBs (2.0 BB/9), 0 HRs

Scouting report: Ritchie, whose first full season was cut short after less than 14 innings due to Tommy John surgery, comes in at the bottom of the top tier of pitching prospects for the organization owing to the uncertainty around his return from injury. 

Prior to the TJ, he featured a power fastball that sat in the mid-90s, touching 98 with great life up in the zone. The primary secondary was a sweepy-ish slider in the low-to-mid 80s, as well as a promising changeup that was mostly used against lefties, but saw great swing and miss when commanded well. 

Expected back for competitive action in July or August, it's great timing for Ritchie to shake off some rust, have a normal offseason to develop, and then potentially climb rapidly through the organization in 2025. 

#4: RHP Owen Murphy

Entry to the organization: 2022 MLB Draft, Round 1 (prep)
2023 Production: 21 A/A+ starts: 6-4, 4.72 ERA in 89.2 IP w/ 113 Ks (11.3), 32 BBs (3.2 BB/9), 9 HRs (0.9 HR/9) 

Scouting report: Murphy another potential "frontline" starter for Atlanta in the future, showcasing a four pitch mix that, whole lacking some power at the moment has a lot of potential as he continues to physically develop and grow as a pitcher. 

Led by a low-90s fastball that plays up when it's elevated in the zone, Murphy covers four velocity bands with his upper-70s curveball, slider in the upper-80s, and a changeup that's still in a development phase but has the potential to be an above-average pitch. It's a clean delivery with good control, so the next step's improvement of the tertiary pitches - the slider got significantly better through the 2023 season - and some additional velocity and power.  

#3: RHP Spencer Schwellenbach

Entry to the organization: 2021 MLB Draft, Round 2 (Nebraska)
2023 Production: 16 A/A+ starts: 5-2, 2.49 ERA in 65 IP w/ 55 Ks (7.6 K/9), 16 BBs (2.2 BB/9), 3 HRs (0.4 HR/9)

Scouting report: Schwellenbach's another Tommy John guy, having the procedure his final year at Nebraska and not getting back onto the mound until the 2023 season. Unlike most TJ guys, his control came back before the swing and miss, with a low walk rate that actually improved when he went up to High-A Rome for his final starts of the year. 

It's an interesting package that I'm curious to see how Atlanta optimizes. The fastball has great velocity, sitting in the upper-90s and touching 99, but the life in the zone isn't necessarily great and there's probably some spin efficiencies that can found in the hand placement and delivery. That issue generating effective spin can be seen in the secondaries, as well, with an inconsistent slider that comes out in the mid to upper 80s, sometimes presenting as a cutter, as well as vertically breaking curveball and a pretty good changeup with solid fade in the mid-80s.

Given Atlanta's history at shelving curveballs to improve someone's slider, I see Schwellenbach spending a good portion of 2024 in Rome, working on that fastball/slider/changeup trio for more of a lateral game, with potential work to make the fastball a two-seamer or even a cutter if the IVB doesn't tick up a bit as he gets farther away from the procedure. But if everything clicks to open the season, Schwellenbach's my favorite to "break out" (as much as an organization's #3 prospect can break out.) 

#2: RHP AJ Smith-Shawver

Entry to the organization: 2021 MLB Draft, Round 7 (prep)
2023 Production: 15 A+/AA/AAA starts: 4-2, 2.76 ERA in 62 IP w/ 79 Ks (11.5 K/9), 33 BBs (4.8 BB/9), 4 HRs (0.6 HR/9)
6 MLB games (5 starts): 1-0, 4.26 ERA in 25.1 IP w/ 20 Ks (7.1 K/9), 11 BBs (3.9 BB/9), 7 HRs (2.5 HR/9) 

Scouting report: Smith-Shawver, believe it or not, is the best athlete in Atlanta's system and just oozing with natural talent - that's part of the reason he was able to pitch in MLB just two seasons after becoming a full-time pitcher. (Smith-Shawver, like a lot of Braves draftees, was a two-sport athlete in high school, playing quarterback on the football team as well as baseball).

It's some of the best natural arm talent in the entire organization, with a fastball that sits at 95 mph and can hit 100, coming in at a low approach angle that makes it play up in the zone. The slider's a dominant weapon, as well, sitting in the mid-to-upper 80s. Smith-Shawver brought the curveball back after not really using it in 2022, and both it and the changeup flash potential for a true four pitch mix in an incredibly athletic package. 

Part of the reason for his placement at two rather than one has to do with the rawness of the profile - as we mentioned, due to his relative inexperience, Smith-Shawver still has more development to do than a typical pitcher who just debuted in MLB would normally have. But the natural arm talent and athleticism is undeniable, and he could easily be the best pitcher out of this entire farm system in three years.    

#1: RHP Hurston Waldrep

Entry to the organization: 2023 MLB Draft, Round 1 (University of Florida)
2023 Production: 8 A/A+/AA/AAA starts: 0-1, 1.53 ERA in 29.1 IP w/ 41 Ks (12.6 K/9), 16 BBs (4.9 BB/9), 1 HR (0.3 HR/9)

Scouting report: Waldrep, our number one prospect and an invitee to major league spring training, has a more defined arsenal at the moment than Smith-Shawver and probably the best non-fastball in the system in his splitter, giving him the top spot at the moment. 

Waldrep does a good job to utilize his fastball up in the zone, which averages 95 and could probably touch triple digits early this year. The pitch has only average riding life and little horizontal movement, so establishing his secondaries will be key to keep hitters from teeing off on it. But the secondaries are led by a hellacious splitter, thrown in the mid-to-upper 80s from the same release point and tunnel as the fastball before absolutely falling of the table late. Waldrep also throws a vertical breaking curveball and a mostly horizontal slider with some late drop, giving himself a versatile four pitch mix in multiple velocity bands. 

But there's also some development points to iron out with Waldrep. Owing to his higher-effort delivery, the control's not always been there and the occasional issues with locating his secondaries for strikes lead to not only walks, but hard hits as well. When he can't successfully establish the splitter as a strike pitch, hitters can disregard it and force Waldrep to throw too many fastballs in the zone and try and force chase on the slider. It'll be interesting to see how Atlanta approaches getting him MLB-ready, but every indication is that his fastball/splitter combo can play at the major league level now and we should see him at some point in time this season.   

(Special thanks to our friends over at Locked On MLB Prospects for their help with this list - check them out on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.)

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