Braves Will Need to Open Wallet to Keep Starting Rotation Intact: Insider

The Atlanta Braves lost World Series champion starter Max Fried at 31 years old in 2024-25 MLB free agency. As it stands right now, Braves ace Spencer Strider will reach free agency at the same age Fried did this past winter.

If the Braves don't want to suffer the same fate with Strider as they did with Fried, they will have to cut a really big check.

That's what ESPN's Jeff Passan projected when he took a stab at predicting the big contracts star MLB players could receive over the next several years. Passan included Strider in the group of players who are likely to receive a contract worth $200 million.

The ESPN insider argued Strider's next deal could also be worth a lot more.

"Strider's six-year, $75 million extension signed in October 2022 set a record for a pitcher with such little service time," Passan wrote. "Should the Braves exercise a club option in 2029, it will put Strider onto the market at 31 -- the same age as his former Braves teammate Max Fried was when he got eight years and $218 million from the Yankees last winter.

"When he's healthy, Strider is even better than Fried, and if he can sustain his stuff, he might be a better bet for the $300 million club."

The big caveat to any potential Strider contract is his health. Strider made 32 starts during his first All-Star season in 2023. But last year, he only made a pair of starts before needing surgery to repair the UCL in his throwing elbow.

Strider returned for one MLB start in April after looking terrific in Spring Training and during rehab starts. But then Strider suffered what Braves manager Brian Snitker has labeled a fluke hamstring injury while playing catch in the outfield before a game when he wasn't starting.

Strider will have to overcome these injuries and then stay healthy if he's going to land a $200 million contract from the Braves or any MLB club.

Whether Atlanta is willing to give Strider that kind of money could depend on not just the pitcher's health and his performance over the next several years, but also on where the team is entering the 2030 season.

Excluding arbitration-eligible players, the only players currently on Atlanta's roster under contract for the 2030 season are third baseman Austin Riley and outfielder Michael Harris II. First baseman Matt Olson could return for 2030 on a club option.

If the Braves rightfully manage their roster over the next few seasons and not commit to any bad contracts, they should be able to afford a huge payday for Strider.

The other question, though, is whether the Braves will still be contending in five years. If they aren't, will they want to sign a 31-year-old starter to a big deal?

That question could be more complicated with the fact that fellow Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach will become a free agent around the same time. Passan projected Schwellenbach to be worth a contract in excess of $100 million.

"This is a bet on Schwellenbach's array of stuff and mature mound presence," Passan wrote. "Suggesting a soon-to-be-25-year-old with fewer than 200 big league innings will warrant nine figures is risky. He doesn't reach free agency until after the 2030 season.

"But if there's anyone to bet on, it's a pitcher with extreme athleticism whose fastball sits 97 mph and is one of six pitches he throws with tremendous command."

The Braves could avoid needing to re-sign both "Spencers" in back-to-back winters if they offer Schwellenbach an early contract extension. That would be very on-brand for the Braves, who have done that with several other players including Strider and Fried.

But locking in Schwellenbach early could also give the Braves less flexibility to bring back Strider.

These decisions are likely still several years away. But general manager Alex Anthopoulos should have them in mind as he makes other significant roster moves this year and in the offseasons to come.