Breaking Down the Rays’ Lineup Construction

Does lineup construction really matter? That’s a question bouncing around Tampa Bay Rays land to begin the season. The answer is more no than yes, as long as you’re not being irrational.

For example, if the Rays were batting Junior Caminero ninth and Nick Fortes leadoff, yeah, that matters. For the discussion of the Rays’ batting Caminero fourth versus another spot, it’s a bit less important.

But it’s baseball. It’s fun to discuss these things.

What’s an Ideal Lineup Construction for the Rays?

Before getting into the Rays specifically, it’s important to establish what even matters in lineup construction.

One way is just to order the hitters from best to worst. That’s not perfect, but it’s a good starting point. The whole idea behind lineup construction should be to score runs.

So, how do you accomplish that through lineup construction? By getting guys on base for your best hitters to drive in. But it’s an important balance to strike with getting your best hitters the most plate appearances possible.

For some teams, that means hitting their best hitter second. Hopefully, the team has at least one good on-base guy. Regardless of their speed, that fella should be leading off.

Is the Current Lineup the Best Way to Deploy Rays Hitters?

For the Rays, their best on-base guy is Yandy Díaz. So, it makes logical sense to bat him leadoff, even with his power.

Some folks point to Chandler Simpson‘s speed as a reason to promote him to the leadoff spot. Unfortunately, as fun as Simpson is to watch, he’s not the on-base machine Díaz is. So, Simpson is better served to be a “second leadoff” guy near the bottom of the order.

Where things get a bit weird is their decision to deploy Caminero in the cleanup spot. Traditionally, the best power hitter bats fourth, so for old-time fans it’s cool.

But many Rays fans cite the lack of “protection” behind Caminero, as the hitting talent drops off considerably. While there’s debate behind the validity of “protection,” Caminero walking so much on Opening Day was a tough start. But walking and getting on base are good things. Even for a guy as slow as Caminero, and with hitters as bad as the Rays have to fill out their lineup.

Another point against Caminero hitting fourth is the loss of plate appearances the third baseman receives by not hitting second. This is a far more compelling point, but still a bit marginal when broken down over a whole season.