Brown vs Sale 2026 Fantasy Comparison

It is the tale of two types of pitchers as we look at their performance last season. Hunter Brown had a breakout season, but is it sustainable? Sale had injuries for the fourth time in five years, but his performance when he is in the rotation is as good as any pitcher in the majors.

Hunter Brown's Breakout

Brown pitched on one of the best staffs in 2025. The Astros were second in strikeouts, one strikeout behind the World Champion Dodgers. They were sixth in hits allowed. Most importantly, the defense was good too, giving up just a .232 batting average to opponents, which was fifth in the league.

Brown’s stat line felt like a breakout with 185 innings pitched with 206 strikeouts and just 56 walks. He had a 2.43 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. His SwK percentage was up to 11.6. His home runs per fly ball ratio was down for the third year in a row. His velocity and FpK percentage were both up too. His xERA (FIP) was 3.13, which indicates that the 2.43 ERA may not be sustainable.

65 seconds on the clock.

Chris Sale's Season

It is all about staying healthy for Chris Sale. In 2025, he pitched only 125 innings because of a rib injury. He was the Cy Young winner in 2024. When he came back from injury on Aug. 30, he was masterful. He pitched 36.1 innings and had 51 strikeouts. He only allowed opponents just a .185 batting average.

Sale twirled 125.1 innings with 162 strikeouts and 32 walks, which is a 5.2 k/bb rate. He had a 14 SwK and threw 94.7 MPH.

50 seconds on the clock.

2026 Projections Head-to-Head

We take a lot of factors into play when figuring out the player and the risk with rostering him. Hunter Brown seems to have been a little lucky with a BABIP of .267 and an xERA of 3.13. Sale has been hurt more than Byron Buxton.

Strikeouts and Ratios

Sale struck out more batters per nine innings (11.9) than Hunter Brown (10) and has a body of work that suggests that continues as long as he can stay on the field. His ratios are elite and should stay there as his xERA is right at 3.00. Expect a 2.75 ERA and a WHIP close to 1.05.

Hunter Brown pitched 31 games in each of the last two seasons and if that happens, he will have 200 strikeouts. His luck last season and the defense of the Astros should keep that going, but expect over a 3.00 ERA and a WHIP over 1.10.

40 seconds on the clock.

Key Risk Factors

The Braves will score more runs. They did last season. Brown’s ability to go deep into games and his team’s bullpen will give him an opportunity for more wins.

Sale’s injury history is scary. The Braves took this risk and got themselves a Cy Young winner in 2024. In 2025, his ribs cost him a good chunk of the season. When we project his performance, we have to include him missing time as “father time is undefeated” and “players who get hurt tend to get hurt again.”

Brown is 27 years old, which means his prime 3-4 years are upon us. He has a steady rise in all metrics and nothing indicates that will not continue. I believe his k/9 and k/bb will go up along with getting wins from good defense and a good bullpen at the end of games.

25 seconds on the clock.

Projection

Well, fantasy baseball is both sports and math so the numbers matter. That said, the floor for Sale is scary. Hunter’s floor is 2024. Let’s project:

Hunter Brown: 14 wins, 198 innings pitched, 233 strikeouts, 3.14 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP

Chris Sale: 10 wins, 145 innings pitched, 185 strikeouts, 2.75 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP

Recommendation

With 10 seconds on the clock, we decide that everyone likes PI. Brown is the one for me. Hunter Brown represents both security and upside and heck, we projected him to have an ERA that fills our math quota.

Now if you are a round later and Sale is still there because he is 36 years old and will get a rib injury if he laughs too hard, you can take him knowing that when he is on the mound, he will give you elite-level performance.

In some leagues, you can argue that when you replace him from the free agent pool by streaming pitchers that the combination of a healthy Chris Sale and the replacements (not Shane Falco) may have equal performance to Hunter Brown.

Baseball is Life.

Looking for more help with your 2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft? Check these top 20 positional rankings:

• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• Top 20 Relief Pitchers
• Top 20 Catchers
• Top 20 First Basemen
• Top 20 Second Basemen
• Top 20 Third Basemen
• Top 20 Shortstops
• Top 20 Outfielders
• Top 20 Designated Hitters

People Also Ask

Who has higher fantasy value 2026: Brown or Sale?
Brown edges in volume and overall rankings.

Is Hunter Brown a top-10 SP in 2026?
Yes, the breakout looks sustainable.

Chris Sale 2026 outlook after injury?
Strong ratios if healthy.

Best fantasy pitchers 2026 mid-round?
These two lead the debate.

How does age impact Sale fantasy?
Durability remains the key concern.