Buxton vs Bellinger 2026 Fantasy Comparison

Byron Buxton had his best season ever. He has had 10 others, but none with a performance like his. He was injured for what amounts to about a month of playing time. He had 488 at-bats for the first time in almost a decade (2017). Junior Caminero, who hit 45 home runs, was 13 years old.

Buxton had a .264 batting average with 35 home runs while driving in 83, scoring 97 times, and stealing 24 bases. He hits the ball hard. His hard contact rate is 110. For context, Bellinger’s is 91.

Cody Bellinger's Season

Cody Bellinger had a steady but not spectacular season. He makes a lot of contact. His contact rate is 84%. For context, Buxton’s is 69%.

Bellinger had a .272 batting average with 29 home runs while driving in 98, scoring 89 times, and stealing 13 bases.

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2026 Projections Head-to-Head

The interesting part of comparing these two players is that one is pretty steady while the other is always hurt, had his first strong season in a decade, but hits with such prolific power that fantasy baseball players fall for him every year.

Power and Speed

Buxton is a better power hitter.  He has stronger metrics in every category: 17.2 brl%, 92.5 exit velocity, 17.7 launch angle.  All these say that he will hit home runs. His sprint speed is 24.2 ft/sec. Definitely on the higher side of speed for stealing bases even at 32.

Bellinger, on the other hand, has all the skills that will give you a balanced player.  Last year, he struck out less and walked more.  His BABIP was .274 suggesting that he was a bit unlucky and his average could increase.  He has almost 100 runs batted in and 90 runs scored.  His brl% was only 7.2 and he has a chase rate of 33.5%.  He is not a power hitter by profile, but we will talk about the “jet stream” later in this article.

Team Lineup

When talking about lineups, it is the players in front of them for runs batted in opportunities and the players behind them for protection and the ability to score runs.

The New York Yankees led the league in runs scored while Minnesota was 23rd.  Bellinger plays in a prolific lineup with baseball’s best right-handed hitter Aaron Judge batting in front of him and Ben Rice, Giancarlo “don’t call me Mike” Stanton and Jazz Chisholm batting behind him.  

Buxton leads off for the Twinkies. A mish mosh of players bat behind him with Austin Martin and Luke Keaschall most likely to hit second and third.

Home Ballpark

Target field is an average Major League ballpark while Yankee Stadium is a 17% home run power added for left-handed hitters.

Cody Bellinger may be the biggest beneficiary of the Yankee Stadium jet stream. If you are not familiar with this, when the new Yankee Stadium was built, it is said to be unintentional, but the way the stadium is positioned, winds normally blow out to right field. In right field, besides the craziest, most fun fans in baseball, there is an opening where the facade of decks ends and the “bleachers” begin. The wind catches balls and takes them out of the ballpark there.

Look at Cody’s spray chart — nuff said.

Key Factors: Injuries, Age

Our friends at BaseballHQ.com have a great stat in all their stats files. It is IL days. Buxton had 31 last year, but here is the number that kills me. He has spent 513 days on the IL. That has to factor into this decision.

Buxton is also 32 years old. This may hurt the regression theory less, as he does not have the wear and tear of a normal player with 11 seasons under their belt. He rested 500+ more days.

Belly has re-signed with the Yankees for a five-year, $162 million deal with a $20 million signing bonus. Sometimes that has to be a consideration as a player gets paid and becomes complacent or goes on the IL more often with nagging injuries he would play through in a contract year. Not likely for Bellinger. But it has to be considered.

Final Recommendation

OK.  For me playing with the SMART System where rule #1 is Age Matters and rule #2 is Injuries Matter, younger players with higher upside should be considered in the spot that you are confronted with this choice: 7th or 8th round. 

If I have to choose, I cannot choose Byron Buxton as last year feels lucky.  There is a statement that I made to Glenn Colton 1000 times in the 12 years of our radio show, “sometimes you have to bank stats.”  With Bellinger, you bank stats.  

Since I said I will take neither player, I want to offer my alternative: Athletics Outfielder Tyler Soderstrom. Now with 975 Major League at-bats coming off a strong year with 25 home runs and entering his age 25 season when home runs pop.  With a small change in launch angle, he could hit 40.  

He is multi-position eligible with 49 games at first base.  He hits the ball hard with a career brl% over 13 and an exit velocity close to 92.  He doesn’t steal a lot of bases but will give you 8-10.  The average will regress back to the .255 or so as his BABIP was a whopping .327 so he was lucky on his 48% ground balls.

Soderstrom. He gives me those nice bright colors. Gives us the greens of summers. Makes me think all the world’s a sunny day … OH YEAH!

Baseball is life.

People Also Ask

Who has higher fantasy value in 2026: Buxton or Bellinger?
Buxton upside; Bellinger floor/consistency.

Byron Buxton 2026 outlook after a healthy year?
Elite if he plays 130+ games.

Cody Bellinger Yankees re-signing fantasy impact?
Stable power/average boost.

Best mid-tier outfielders 2026?
These two lead upside vs safety debates.

Buxton vs Bellinger projections?
Buxton HR/SB ceiling vs Bellinger AVG/RBI.

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