Buying or Selling the AL’s Most Surprising Contenders

• 30-15, 1st in American League East
• +25 run differential

​Predicted by many to finish at the bottom of the American League East after subtracting Brandon Lowe, Mason Montgomery, Pete Fairbanks and Shane Baz from a 77-win 2025 team, the Rays have climbed to the top of the American League with their usual formula of great pitching, dynamic baserunning and just enough hitting.

​Only the Marlins have topped their 51 stolen bases, 14 of which have come from the dynamic Chandler Simpson. The slugging duo of Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero has combined for 20 of the club’s 38 home runs, while Yandy Díaz has continued to age gracefully with a .295 batting average and a 136 OPS+.

​On the pitching front, the return of Shane McClanahan after a two-year absence has given the club another frontline starter to pair with Drew Rasmussen. The addition of Nick Martinez has further supplemented the rotation, as the 35-year-old has posted a 1.51 ERA through his first nine starts in a Rays uniform.

​And despite losing Fairbanks and Montgomery in the offseason, the Rays have pieced together a bullpen that has posted a 3.47 ERA since the calendar turned to May.

​So is this sustainable? If you were going simply by the numbers, the answer would be a clear no. Their +25 run differential indicates that they should have five fewer wins than they actually have, and they have massively overperformed their expected numbers:

Of particular concern to the Rays is the mounting list of injuries to their starting rotation, as Steven Matz joined Joe Boyle and Ryan Pepiot on the IL at the beginning of May with elbow inflammation.

​With their starting rotation depth wiped out, the Rays transitioned to struggling reliever Griffin Jax and career minor league journeyman Jesse Schlotens to starting roles, neither of whom has done much to inspire confidence in their first few turns through the rotation.

​If you have watched baseball long enough, however, you have learned not to underestimate the Rays based simply on the names on their roster. ​

Their ability to manufacture runs with baserunning and bunting gives them an edge in the homer-centric modern game, and their well-documented success in identifying overlooked pitchers earns them the benefit of the doubt, despite all the injuries. ​

Though the Rays might not be able to sustain a 100-win pace, there is no reason why they can’t stay in a crowded American League playoff race loaded with flawed and underperforming teams.

Chicago White Sox

• 24-22, 2nd in American League Central (1.0 GB of CLE)
• -7 run differential

Following a dismal 2024 season that saw them tie a modern-day record with 121 losses, it wouldn’t take much for the White Sox to improve in 2025. Yet while they still finished at the cellar of the American League Central with a 60-102 record, there were some signs that the club was beginning to pull itself out of its lengthy rebuild.

​Top prospects Kyle Teel and Colson Montgomery flashed their immense upside upon their MLB debuts, with the former posting a 121 OPS+ and playing stellar defense behind the dish, and the latter posting a 3.3 bWAR and homering 21 home runs in just 71 games.

​The pitching staff, meanwhile, improved its ERA from 4.68 in 2024 to 4.27, as Rule 5 pick Shane Smith became the team’s unlikely ace en route to earning an All-Star appearance, while Mike Vasil and Jordan Leasure formed a steady back-end of the bullpen.

​2026 has provided even more reasons for optimism, none bigger than the emergence of Munetaka Murakami as one of the game’s most dangerous power hitters.

The Japanese slugger was forced to sign a two-year, $34 million deal due to concerns about his strikeout propensity and ability to hit elite velocity, but he has quickly silenced doubters after homering 17 times in his first 46 MLB games.

​The addition of Murakami, alongside the continued development of Montgomery and third baseman Miguel Vargas, has transformed the White Sox into one of the most powerful offenses in baseball, ranking second in MLB with 66 home runs after finishing 23rd in 2025.

​The new pitching additions have also paid immediate dividends, with Seranthony Domínguez and Sean Newcomb providing veteran stability at the back-end of the bullpen, and Erick Fedde once again filling the role of reliable back-end innings-eater

​The most promising development, however, has been the emergence of Davis Martin, who has followed in the footsteps of Garrett Crochet and Smith as this year’s unlikely ace. The 29-year-old has posted a 1.61 ERA over his first nine starts, striking out 59 batters in 56 innings against just 10 walks.

​With Martin establishing himself as a rotation mainstay and 6-foot-10 Noah Schultz getting the call to show in early April, the White Sox are beginning to round out their rotation of the future, even as Smith was optioned to Triple-A after three dismal starts.

​Even with all of this exciting young talent, however, the White Sox still appear to be a year away from true playoff contention.

​Like many rebuilding teams, the club’s lineup lacks depth outside the big three, with the continued struggles of former top prospects Edgar Quero and Luisangel Acuña and the continued decline of Andrew Benintendi proving to be especially detrimental.

Though the impending return of Teel, who has missed the entire season with a hamstring injury, will help, a lineup with this many young players is bound to go through its ups and downs, and the pitching staff lacks the depth to carry the burden when those slumps inevitably occur.

​The good news for the White Sox was that this season was never supposed to be the one where they vaulted from rebuild to true contention. Much of their core is still in their first or second MLB seasons, and there is still another wave of prospects yet to debut, with outfielder Braden Montgomery (Just Baseball’s 62nd-ranked prospect) knocking on the door at Triple-A.

So, even if the ceiling of this team is hovering around the .500 mark, it’s clear that the foundation is being laid for a legitimate division title run in 2027.

Sacramento Athletics

• 23-23, 1st in American League West
• -13 run differential

There is little secret about the identity of the 2026 Athletics.

​Through a combination of excellent draft picks and savvy trades, the Athletics have built one of the deepest lineups in all of baseball, one that can pile up runs even when they aren’t playing in the bandbox that is Sutter Health Park.

​The club currently ranks among the league leaders in average (5th), slugging percentage (8th), and OPS (8th), figures that would rank even higher if not for the ice-cold starts of some of their best hitters from last season:

​Tyler Soderstrom:

• 2025: .276/.356/.474, 25 HR, 93 RBI, 120 OPS+
• 2026: .195/.281/.384, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 80 OPS+

Brent Rooker:

• 2025: .262/.335/.469, 30 HR, 89 RBI, 118 OPS+
• 2026: .196/.281/.375, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 78 OPS+

Lawrence Butler:

• 2025: .234/.306/.404, 21 HR, 63 RBI, 91 OPS+
• 2026: .171/.272/.264, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 47 OPS+

Jacob Wilson:

• 2025: .311/.355/.444, 13 HR, 63 RBI, 116 OPS+
• 2026: .292/.311/.398, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 92 OPS+

The fact that the Athletics have remained a top-10 offense despite these struggles is a credit to the otherworldliness of Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers, two players who combined for 67 home runs and 158 RBI last season but have taken their games to even higher levels in 2026.  

​After steadily improving throughout his first three years with the Athletics, Langeliers may have taken the mantle from a struggling Cal Raleigh as the best offensive catcher in baseball. He currently leads the American League with a .337 average and 57 hits while trailing only Ben Rice and Yordan Alvarez with a .609 slugging.

​Like Rice has in Aaron Judge, Langeliers has the perfect partner atop the Athletics order in Kurtz. After beginning the season in a 1-for-21, the reigning Rookie of the Year award winner has gone nuclear over his last 39 games, slashing .302/.461/.547 with eight home runs and 29 RBI.

​While the dynamic duo of Kurtz and Langeliers has rightfully garnered most of the attention, the Athletics have also received contributions from some more unheralded names.

​Outfielder Carlos Cortes was one of the Athletics’ best stories last year after hitting .307 as a 28-year-old rookie. He has quickly proved that wasn’t a fluke, with a .346/.400/.558 line through his first 115 PA in 2026.

​Zack Gelof was a promising rookie himself in 2023, hitting 14 home runs and accumulating 2.5 bWAR over 69 games, before league-leading strikeout rates in 2024 and 2025 got him banished to the minor leagues.

​Pressed into action when Rooker landed on the injured list with an oblique strain, Gelof has shockingly cut his strikeout rate from 45.5% to 22.6%, easily the lowest mark of his career. Even more encouraging is the fact that he has done this without sacrificing his elite raw power, as his .224 isolated power ranks second on the team behind Langeliers.

​Even if these four hitters aren’t able to sustain their incredible pace, positive regression from the clubs’ collection of struggling veterans should help keep the offense among the league’s best all season long.

The bigger question is whether the pitching staff can be adequate enough to give the lineup a chance to outslug the competition. While their 4.38 ERA represents progress from their 4.70 mark last season, it still ranks firmly in the bottom third of the league, and they rank near the bottom in strikeouts (25th), opponents’ batting average (27th), and walks (25th).

​The veteran trio of Aaron Civale, Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs has done an adequate job eating up innings, but none of them could realistically be classified as frontline starters for a contending team.

​The big disappointment has been the performance of left-hander Jacob Lopez. The 27-year-old was a revelation last season after posting a 2.17 ERA in a 13-start stretch between June 8 and August 19. He has seen his K/9 tumble from 11.0 to 6.7 while serving up homers and walks at league-high rates.

​As much as the regression of Lopez has hurt a starting rotation lacking upside, the failure to replace Mason Miller has dragged down a bullpen that currently ranks 25th in MLB with a 4.68 ERA. Offseason acquisition Mark Leiter Jr. has been a disaster with a 6.86 ERA, while de facto closer Joel Kuhnel looks like a disaster waiting to happen with just eight strikeouts in 16.2 innings.

​The obvious solution would be to give Jack Perkins (11.7 K/9, 2.10 FIP) and Luis Medina (2.70 ERA) more high-leverage opportunities, but this is clearly a bullpen short on reliable arms. It certainly makes it hard to believe they can keep pace with the division rival Mariners, a team with five starters that would likely be the ace of the Athletics staff and a bullpen that ranks third in MLB with a 3.08 ERA.

​With that being said, the American League playoff race is crowded with teams every bit as flawed as the Athletics, and few possess as big a strength as the Athletics’ offense. Whether or not the A’s can make their first postseason appearance since 2020 may come down to their ability to bring in pitching reinforcements at the trade deadline.