Buying or Selling the NL’s Most Surprising Contenders

• 27-19, 3rd in National League Central (1.0 GB of CHC)
• +3 run differential

It’s hard to imagine a better start to the 2026 season for the St. Louis Cardinals, not just because they have remained competitive in the surprisingly loaded National League Central but because their success has been fueled by an increasingly exciting young core.

​Despite trading lineups mainstays Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan and Nolan Arenado this past winter, the Cardinals’ offense has jumped from 19th in runs per game to 11th.

​Though the steadiness of holdovers Iván Herrera (.395 on-base percentage, 134 OPS+) and Alec Burleson (33 RBI, 125 OPS+) should not be overlooked, how quickly and effectively the Cardinals can climb out of their rebuild will be determined by the success of emerging superstars Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt.

​Even the idea that Walker could be a franchise cornerstone seemed far-fetched just a few months ago, as the former top prospect’s massive offensive potential had been undermined by sky-high strikeout and groundball rates.

​Yet, while Walker has only made minor improvements to his strikeout and whiff rates, a nine-point reduction in his groundball rate has finally allowed him to tap into his massive power.

​The 24-year-old ranks inside the top five in the National League in both home runs (13) and slugging percentage (.584), which, along with surprisingly competent right field defense, has helped him accumulate 3.0 bWAR in just 45 games, the third-highest total among MLB position players.

​While Walker’s breakout has been four years in the making, Wetherholt immediately proved he belonged upon making the big league club out of camp. The seventh overall pick in the 2024 draft has already tallied 6 Outs Above Average in his first 400 MLB innings at second base, while posting an OPS 20 percent better than league average.

​Wetherholt is just one piece of what has been the majors’ sixth-best defense by Outs Above Average, as Nolan Gorman (+2) and Victor Scott (+2) have also been plus defenders despite major struggles at the plate.

​As many promising signs as there have been for the Cardinals in the field and at the plate, their pitching staff makes it difficult to believe that they can keep pace in their ultra-competitive division.

​The Cardinals rank last in MLB with 330 strikeouts, a product of each of their five starters having a K/9 rate of 7.4 or below. Each of Matthew Liberatore, Dustin May, Andre Pallante and Kyle Leahy has posted an ERA of 3.94 or higher, and even Michael McGreevey’s shiny 2.10 mark is undermined by an expected ERA over 3.5 runs higher.

​The only Cardinals pitcher that can truly be qualified as a strikeout artist is closer Riley O’Brien, who has built upon his 2025 breakout by posting a dominant 25-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

​Other than O’Brien and lefty specialist JoJo Romero, however, the Cardinals’ bullpen has been largely ineffective, ranking 22nd in MLB with a 4.46 ERA.

​The lack of top-end talent on the Cardinals’ pitching staff speaks to where they are in their rebuild. The transition from longtime general manager John Mozeliak to Chaim Bloom after last season was never meant to yield immediate results, and Bloom’s quick gutting of the team’s veterans in his first winter on the job indicated he didn’t believe they were close to contention.

​The performance of the club’s young position players will keep the team both watchable and somewhat competitive through the summer, but it may take Bloom a few more seasons to build a pitching staff that can hold its own against the National League’s best clubs.

Pittsburgh Pirates

• 24-23 record, 4th in National League Central (4.5 GB of CHC)
• +18 run differential

A popular dark horse postseason pick entering the season, the Pirates have taken a massive step forward this season thanks to a perfect blend of veteran additions and emerging young superstars.

​Nearly every one of Ben Cherington’s offensive moves has paid immediate dividends, as sluggers Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn (currently on the IL with a quad strain) have combined for 19 home runs and 60 RBI, while lefty relievers Gregory Soto (2.42 ERA, 10.48 K/9) and Mason Montgomery (3.00, 13.00 K/9) have been among manager Don Kelly’s most trusted relievers.

​Those four newcomers, along with the steady contributors O’Neil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, and Mitch Keller, have formed the perfect nucleus around Paul Skenes and Konnor Griffin, two of the most exciting young talents to enter MLB in recent memory.

​After recording just two outs in a nightmarish Opening Day start against the Mets, Skenes has quickly re-established himself as the game’s most dominant pitcher, posting a microscopic 1.82 ERA over his last 54.1 innings. As he approaches his 24th birthday, Skenes is at the height of his powers and looks to be in the driver’s seat for his second straight Cy Young Award.

​Griffin, meanwhile, had his own slow start upon being called up to the show but has flipped the switch after celebrating his 20th birthday on April 24, slashing a terrific .325/.374/.518 over his last 22 games.

​Of all the teams in this series (TBR, CWS, ATH, and STL), the Pirates are the team that appears most likely to sustain their current pace of play. Alongside the powerhouse Braves and Dodgers, the Pirates rank among the NL’s top five teams in both runs scored and ERA.

​Their resume also includes series victories against the streaking Brewers and Rays, and they are one of only two teams to take a series from the first-place Cubs in Chicago.

​And while there are some obvious holes on the roster, most notably the lack of go-to right-handed relief options, the Pirates possess the farm system and the starting pitching depth to make some moves at the trade deadline.

​Catching the Cubs or Brewers for the NL Central crown might be too big an ask for a team that hasn’t made the postseason since 2013, but there is little to suggest that the Pirates can’t stay in the postseason race deep into the summer.

​

​