Can Eugenio Suárez Continue his Power Surge in 2025?

Among the top contributors to the Diamondbacks' MLB-leading offense in 2024 sat third baseman Eugenio Suárez. Arizona acquired the veteran from the Seattle Mariners in the 2023 off-season, in hopes of bringing power and defensive consistency to the lineup.

But 2024 manifested in a strange manner. Suárez got off to an exceptionally poor start, and couldn't seem to buy a hit in the early goings. Though he hadn't been projected to have an excellent 2024 season initially, he was falling well below what was expected of him.

His batting average sunk as low as .192 on June 26, and he had a mere six homers in his first three months of action. But a post-All-Star Break surge saw him destroy the baseball at an incredible rate, helping him finish with 30 homers and 100 RBI.

The projection expects a bit of a regression, which is what can be generally expected with these projections. Still, the veteran is expected to bring plenty of pop, with 25 homers and a .416 slug in 2025.

Why Suárez might outperform this projection

Suárez was able to turn his once-.192 average into a .256 to end the year. That alone is an impressive turnaround. In his final three months of 2024, his lowest monthly average was .260.

Considering just how much of a surge he experienced in the latter months, Suárez might very well have been in MVP conversations if he had begun the season at even an average pace.

While it's reasonable to expect some regression from his stellar overall numbers, he's shown that he can sustain success at the plate. Baseball is a game of streaks, and Suárez might be a streaky player, but nothing about his 2024 campaign (however roughly it began) suggests that he can't keep up at least a portion of his high pace.

He was worth +13 overall batting run value in 2024, and ranked in the 78th percentile in barrel rate. He was able to square up the ball consistently, ranking in the top 5% of Sweet-Spot %.

While he does strike out frequently and rarely walks, his peripherals suggest that his raw results were at the very least mostly bolstered by his expected stats, with a .247 xBA and .447 xSLG.

These numbers are a bit lower than his 2024 slash showed, but they are also significantly higher than what his projection expects him to achieve in 2025.

It might be unsustainable to keep up a slug north of .600, but Suárez certainly has the ability to still mash the ball, and a .235/.314/.416 projected slash is one that can be easily beaten by the veteran if he remains healthy.

Why Suárez might underperform this projection

Regression to the mean is cruel, but it is something that's seriously considered when looking at projections. Suárez's .256 average and .469 slugging percentage last season were both his highest (by a wide margin) since 2019.

With that in mind, it's hard to imagine Suárez getting as close to his 2024 numbers as he might to the projection itself. His 2024 walk rate was an abysmal 7.7%, and he still struck out at a high clip.

Plus, the veteran is entering his age-34 season. Age didn't seem to factor much into his late-season heroics last year, but age-related regression can strike any MLB player suddenly and severely.

He already owns one of the longest swings in baseball, and his bat speed was barely above average in 2024. If that bat speed takes any sort of dive, the quality of his contact could plummet, and his average could sink to where it was pre-2024.

That, of course, would lead to a decrease in power, and would limit his ability to hit the ball out of the park. Suárez is also notorious for whiffs and strikeouts, which could begin to plague him a bit more than they did in 2024.

Summary

It's difficult to imagine - after witnessing his excellence in 2024 - that Suárez won't be able to deliver at least a solid, if not brilliant season in 2025.

His projections are more modest, but still the numbers of a productive player. The most regression comes in his overall batting average and slugging percentage, but his rate stats and 25-homer projection seem quite reasonable.

It seems likely that Suárez has the capability to outperform a .235/.314/.416 projection, though perhaps not by a very wide margin.

To be perfectly candid, his .256/.319/.469 year in 2024 seems nearly impossible to replicate, but it doesn't appear likely he'll sink much further below that than his very feasible 2025 projection numbers.

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