Can Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. bounce back in 2024?

Fernando Tatis Jr. is set to make his first Opening Day appearance for the Padres since 2021. He missed all of 2022 due to a motorcycle accident in the Dominican Republic that left him with a fractured wrist and an 80-game PED suspension. In 2023, he missed the first 20 games because of that same suspension. After an average return, many fans have been left wondering if he can return to MVP form.

Tatis first reached that MVP level in 2021. As a 22-years-old, he slashed .282/.364/.611 with 135 hits, 42 home runs (led National League), 97 runs batted in, 99 runs scored and a 7.3 offensive WAR (led major leagues). He also made his first All-Star appearance, won his second Silver Slugger award and finished third in MVP voting.

Between that final game in 2021 (Oct. 3) and his return on April 20, 2023, it had been 564 days since Tatis played in a regular-season game. Players can practice all they want, but there's no way to simulate what a real game feels like, which led many to believe he'd be a bit rusty. Those speculations came to fruition with rather average offensive production.

He finished 2023 playing in 141 games with career lows in batting average (.257), on-base percentage (.322) and slugging percentage. He also tied for his worst offensive WAR (2.8) since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season when he played in only 59 games. Fortunately after switching from shortstop to right field he saw a major boost in defensive production. Otherwise considered an average defender at shortstop, he won a Gold Glove and Platinum Glove in just his first season at the new spot.

Generally though the best players aren't defined by their defensive performance. In this day and age, offense is king and if a player leads the league in a major stat such as home runs, they're a shoo-in to be among the MVP conversation. If Tatis can combine the hitting prowess shown in 2021 and his new found defensive skill from 2023, he can return to elite status.

Fans didn't have to wait until spring training to see him in 2024 as he played eight games for the Estrellas Orientales in the Dominican Winter League. Per Baseball Reference, he walked away with a 1.062 on-base plus slugging percentage and even hit a game-sealing two-run home run in the 10th inning on Jan. 2 which just so happened to be on his birthday. Obviously the talent isn't on par with what is seen in MLB, but if Tatis replicates some of that electricity he'll be in store for a big season.

As of now, FanGraphs predicts him to have a better season than in 2023, with a slash line of .273/.346/.526 accompanied by 163 hits, 38 home runs, 105 runs scored and 106 runs batted in. Those numbers won't necessarily put him atop the league in production but it's a good start for the now 25 year-old. 

With 11 years left on his massive 14 year $340 million fully guaranteed contract, it's imperative he steps up sooner rather than later. If he can't, it only digs the Padres into a deeper hole of financial and personnel trouble that has already been proven hard to get out of.