Can the Phillies Count On Aaron Nola in October?

As this year’s Wild Card Series wind down, the 2025 MLB Playoffs have gotten off to the best possible start. Three of the four WC showdowns went to a do-or-die Game 3, and there was absolutely no shortage of action.

Even the one matchup that didn’t go three games, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ quick and easy domination of the Cincinnati Reds, was a slugfest. This is precisely what the postseason is supposed to be all about.

One team that has yet to take the field in October is the Philadelphia Phillies, who earned a breather by finishing in the top spot in the National League East for the second straight year. Fresh off of a 96-win campaign (the most wins they’ve had in a season since 2011), the Phillies will be taking on those very same Dodgers in the upcoming National League Division Series.

The best-of-five series is going to get underway on Saturday at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.

One of the big question marks for this Phillies squad is just how Aaron Nola is going to fit on the pitching staff. After a dreadful regular season, the career-long Phillie has an extremely uncertain role heading into these meaningful October games.

The Season That Was

Nola, easily the longest tenured player on this Phillies roster, has a lengthy track record filled with success near or at the top of the team’s starting rotation. He debuted back in 2015 and has been a mainstay in the starting-five ever since.

While he’s only made one All-Star Game in his career, Nola’s also earned Cy Young votes on four separate occasions, highlighted by a third-place finish in 2018 and fourth-place finish in 2022.

Long the face of durability, Nola made 32 (or more) regular season starts each season from 2021 to 2024 before only making 17 of them this year thanks to a rib cage injury.

Even when the right-hander was healthy, he hardly looked like himself. In those 17 outings, he threw a total of 94.1 innings and allowed 63 earned runs, equating to a ghastly ERA of 6.01. You don’t need me to tell you this, but that’s by far the highest single-season ERA he’s ever had.

While Nola struck out more batters per nine innings this year than he did last year, he took a step (or more…) backward in virtually every other way. His performance during this year’s regular season was so dreadful that now his role on the Phillies’ playoff roster is completely up in the air.

To be clear, he’s going to earn a spot on the roster. You simply can’t leave him off if you’re the Phillies’ decision makers. Late in September, he moved into second all-time on the team’s strikeout leaderboards and he also put together two strong starts in his final five outings of the year that could’ve earned him a rotation spot.

On Sept. 8 against the New York Mets, Nola went six shutout innings with seven strikeouts. Two uninspiring starts followed this one, but he ended his regular season on a high note by going eight innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts and no walks.

Starter or Reliever?

Whether Nola is used as a starter or a reliever is anyone’s guess, but it would be surprising to see him pushed into a relief role at this point in his career. While the results this year were less than ideal, he’s also never made a single relief outing in his entire career, and has at times proven to be one of baseball’s most reliable starters.

It’s entirely possible that that final outing of the year against the Minnesota Twins put Nola back in the Phillies’ good graces. He needed a start like that in the worst possible way.

While nothing’s been confirmed one way or the other, it feels like the final spot in the Phillies’ playoff rotation is going to go to either Nola or Taijuan Walker. Because outside of this pair, here’s what we’re dealing with:

Locks:

• Cristopher Sanchez: 32 GS, 13-5, 2.50 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 9.45 K/9, 1.96 BB/9, 6.4 fWAR
• Jesus Luzardo: 32 GS, 15-7, 3.92 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 10.58 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 5.3 fWAR
• Ranger Suarez: 26 GS, 12-8, 3.20 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 8.64 K/9, 2.17 BB/9, 4.0 fWAR
• *Walker Buehler (BOS): 23 G (22 GS), 7-7, 5.45 ERA, 5.90 FIP, 6.73 K/9, 4.41 BB/9, -0.7 fWAR
• *Walker Buehler (PHI): 3 G (2 GS), 3-0, 0.66 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 5.27 K/9, 3.95 BB/9, 0.3 fWAR

*Walker Buehler’s full-season numbers did not look great, but he was outstanding in his brief regular-season stint with the Phillies. This, paired with his long reputation as a playoff stud, have him sitting pretty in this conversation.

Question Marks:

• Aaron Nola: 17 GS, 5-10, 6.01 ERA, 4.58 FIP, 9.25 K/9, 2.67 BB/9, 0.9 fWAR
• Taijuan Walker: 34 G (21 GS), 5-8, 4.08 ERA, 5.07 FIP, 6.26 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, 0.5 fWAR

Boy, this rotation would look much stronger if Zack Wheeler had remained healthy, wouldn’t it?

If there’s an argument to be made of Nola being moved to a playoff bullpen, it’s that he’s been inconsistent throughout his career in October. While he has a combined postseason ERA of 4.02 through 10 starts, he’s also come out and had some total dud outings, primarily in the 2022 NLCS, 2022 World Series, and the 2024 NLDS.

It’s worth noting, though, that three of his 10 playoff starts have been of the shutout variety. Nola turned in a scoreless start against the Miami Marlins in the 2023 Wild Card Series and then again against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2023 NLCS. So it hasn’t all been rough.

We also need to acknowledge that Walker’s playoff career hasn’t been any better. In fact, he’s only got one playoff start under his belt and that 36.00 ERA he has isn’t looking very promising. In his lone outing, he went just one inning and surrendered four runs against the Dodgers in the 2017 NLDS.

We already know that Nola’s got a decade-long record of success on the Phillies, and we know that he’s found it in himself in the past to find his A-game in the playoffs. Furthering his case to crack the rotation over someone like Walker is that Walker’s ERA as a reliever this year was at 3.15 through 13 outings. As a starter? 4.25. His strikeouts also saw a significant uptick in this new role.

To Nola’s credit, he’s open to a move to the ‘pen in a playoff situation, but his status as a Phillies great and that final regular-season start in mind, it’s going to be difficult forcing him out of the rotation once this NLDS gets underway.

Closing Thoughts

A Wheeler-less rotation automatically lacks some legitimacy, even if most of the remaining arms are solid. However, Nola’s career has lasted over a decade and he’s about as legitimate as they come, even if he’s been mired in a down year in 2025.

While he represents a bit of a wild-card heading into an extremely important playoff round, the Phillies have to show that their longtime rotation staple at least has their support. We’ve seen time and time again just what he can do when he’s “on,” and he’s currently riding some momentum after that season-ending outing against the Twins.

Point being: Nola is at least a viable option. Without a long list of alternatives behind him, the Phillies should trust him to eat some playoff innings this year. However, the leash shouldn’t be endless. If troubles arises during a start, the club has to have either Walker or Buehler (ha!) available to step in and go multiple innings in the event of a Nola meltdown.

A potential scenario that would have the Phillies feeling better about handing him a playoff start would be if they were able to get at least a 2-0 leg up on the Dodgers in the NLDS.

In an effort to break up the left-handed starters the Phillies have atop their rotation, they could conceivably hand Nola the ball to try and win the third game and secure the team’s spot in the NLCS with a clean sweep over the NL West’s heavyweights.