Canvassing a crowded AL playoff field as the trade deadline nears

Less than two months to the July 31 trade deadline, the American League playoff picture remains extremely jumbled, with all but a few teams still in the mix.

We can easily rule out the Chicago White Sox and Athletics at this point, considering both clubs are well below .500 and have a less than one per cent chance to make the post-season, per FanGraphs. Given where the Baltimore Orioles currently sit, entering Tuesday’s slate 11 games below .500, we can likely do the same with them.

While the Los Angeles Angels are firmly within the race for the final wild-card seed, positioned just 2.5 games back, most models believe they’ll eventually fade and finish closer to the basement. As such, FanGraphs has their playoff odds at a measly 2.9 per cent — one per cent lower than the Orioles’ odds.

The 11 remaining teams, however, all have at least a 10 per cent chance of qualifying for the playoffs this fall. That includes the Kansas City Royals, who’ve struggled mightily as of late, dropping six straight and eight of their last nine. But they’re one Bobby Witt Jr.-led good week away from being back in contention again.

And so are several other AL playoff contenders.

Outside of the respective division leaders (Yankees, Tigers and Astros), almost every team that’s at least three games within the final wild-card seed — and there are a lot of them — can be near the top of those standings with one strong week, and vice-versa for those currently in a playoff spot or trailing by a game or less. That’s how competitive this season’s post-season race is.

So, with this summer’s trade deadline — which stands to be a lucrative sellers’ market — a month-and-a-half away, let’s take shape of the jam-packed playoff field by organizing this year’s contenders into three categories.

Division Leaders

Standing atop the AL picture lies the Detroit Tigers, who, at 46-27, own baseball’s best record and were the first team to reach 40 wins earlier this month. Following last season’s magical playoff run, they’ve returned even stronger in 2025 while being led by reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal.

The Tigers have also received plenty of meaningful contributions up and down their lineup from the likes of Gleyber Torres, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson and a resurgent Javier Báez. By making the right moves at next month’s trade deadline, like adding another front-line starting pitcher to work alongside Skubal and Jack Flaherty, they’ll solidify themselves as a legitimate World Series contender.

Shifting to the AL East, the Yankees, like the Tigers, have controlled top spot in the division for much of this season. But the Bronx Bombers have sputtered recently, currently riding a four-game losing streak, with three of those losses coming at the hands of a sweep by the Boston Red Sox over the weekend.

It’s been the Aaron Judge show this season, and what a first-half performance it’s been, as No. 99 sits tied for first with Cal Raleigh for the major-league lead in home runs (26) while leading the sport in slugging percentage (.751) and weighted runs created plus (235, 100 league average). On the pitching front, they’ve survived quite well without Gerrit Cole (Tommy John surgery) thanks to the one-two combo of Carlos Rodón and Max Fried, with the latter joining Skubal as an AL Cy Young front-runner.

The AL West, meanwhile, appears the most open of the three AL divisions. Granted, it’s currently led by the Houston Astros, who’re 10 games above .500 as they begin play Tuesday. It was only a few weeks ago that the Seattle Mariners were in their shoes, though, sitting atop the West. Now, they sit just one game above .500.

As well as Houston has performed lately, things can change quickly in that division, especially considering how heavily the offence has relied on its top three hitters (Jeremy Peña, Isaac Paredes and Jose Altuve) in Yordan Alvarez’s absence.

Separating From The Middle

Over the last few weeks, two teams have started to separate themselves from the rest of the crowded AL wild-card race: the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays. Neither has built a significant gap. But they’ve each begun to create important cushions that’ll likely simplify their trade-deadline decisions when the time comes.

Let’s start with the Blue Jays here. Prior to being swept in Philadelphia, Toronto’s club had entered that series having won 12 of its previous 14 games and was one of the hottest teams in baseball. That impressive stretch boosted their playoff odds significantly, soaring from 26.2 per cent on May 27 to a season-high 66.3 per cent before Friday’s opener.