Cardinals’ biggest flop to begin 2026 MLB season

The St. Louis Cardinals have opened the 2026 season in a competitive position, but Dustin May’s early statistical profile has quickly emerged as the most concerning storyline in the rotation. At 7–5, St. Louis remains firmly in the mix, yet the gap between team success and May’s individual performance is impossible to ignore. His struggles have not merely been noticeable—they’ve been damaging, making him the clearest candidate for the Cardinals’ biggest flop of 2026 thus far.

The Cardinals have stayed afloat thanks to balanced contributions across the roster. The offense has produced enough to win, and several pitchers have delivered steady outings. But when May takes the mound, the team’s pitching issues become significantly more pronounced. In both of his starts, St. Louis has fallen into early deficits, placing immediate strain on the offense and bullpen.

Through two outings, May is 0–2 with a staggering 15.95 ERA and a 2.73 WHIP across just 7.1 innings. He has allowed 13 earned runs on 17 hits, with three walks and seven strikeouts. Those numbers fall well outside acceptable standards for any starting pitcher—let alone one expected to stabilize the middle of the rotation.

The game logs underscore the severity of the problem. In his debut vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, May surrendered six earned runs over four innings in an 11-run loss. His next start vs. the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park followed a nearly identical script, seven earned runs in just 3.1 innings, with the Cardinals again allowing 11 runs. These were not merely subpar performances; they effectively rendered both games unwinnable from the outset.

Advanced metrics only deepen the concern. May’s 2.73 WHIP reflects relentless traffic on the bases—nearly three runners per inning. His hits-allowed rate exceeds 20 per nine innings, indicating that opposing hitters are consistently making solid contact. While his 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings is respectable, it is nowhere near sufficient to offset the volume and quality of contact he is yielding.

Expectations entering the season make the situation even more disappointing. The Cardinals signed May to a one-year, $12.5 million deal, viewing him as a high-upside addition capable of strengthening the rotation. Many viewed the move as a potential value signing, contingent on his ability to harness his raw stuff. Instead, the early returns have been the opposite.

The contrast with the rest of the rotation is stark. Other starters have posted manageable ERAs and kept games competitive, even without dominating. May’s 15.95 ERA exists in an entirely different tier—an outlier dragging down the staff’s overall performance. No other pitcher on the roster has approached this level of ineffectiveness.

The underlying issues suggest more than simple bad luck. Despite mid-90s velocity, May has failed to translate his raw tools into results. His inability to consistently miss bats, combined with frequent hard contact, has created a persistent cycle of pressure. Opponents have adjusted easily, producing offense in virtually every situation.

Efficiency is another concern. May has not completed five innings in either start, forcing the bullpen to absorb nearly 10 innings across two games. That strain extends beyond his individual outings, affecting the entire pitching staff and limiting flexibility in subsequent matchups.

To be fair, the sample size remains small. Two starts do not define a season, and a handful of strong outings could quickly recalibrate his numbers. May’s velocity and underlying talent still offer reason to believe improvement is possible. Still, early-season performance carries weight—especially when the results are this extreme.

For now, the conclusion is unavoidable. Based on role, expectations, and performance, May has been the most damaging underperformer on the roster. On a team that has otherwise demonstrated stability, his outings stand out as the primary weakness.