Mar 1, 2026; Jupiter, Florida, USA; St. Louis Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol (37) speaks to catcher Ivan Herrera (48) during a pitching change against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the third inning at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Cardinals Next Breakout Player is Already on Big League Roster

Originally posted on St. Louis Cardinals on SI
By Zach Pressnell | Last updated Apr 13, 2026 10:08 AM ET

The St. Louis Cardinals came into the season with low expectations after fully committing to a rebuild during the offseason. This rebuild seemed to start during the 2024-2025 offseason when the Cardinals didn't chase any talent in free agency or on the trade block. At the trade deadline that season, they cut ties with Steven Matz, Ryan Helsley, and Phil Maton. During the most recent offseason, they fully committed to this rebuild by trading four veteran players.

But these low expectations were exceeded early in the season, as Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker has been one of the hottest hitters in the game. He's barreling baseballs seemingly each time up. He leads the league in home runs and it doesn't seem like he's going to stop anytime soon. Walker is finally finding his stride in the big leagues and he's only 23 years old.

But who's the next Cardinals player who will breakout this season?

As a whole, the lineup has struggled, so there are plenty of options to predict the next breakout. But the best option is slashing .192/.377/.250 with a 0.1 WAR after posting an OPS of at least .800 in 2024 and 2025.

Iván Herrera is primed for a huge breakout this season

Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

If you haven't guessed it yet, my prediction for the next breakout player for the Cardinals is catcher Iván Herrera. This might not seem like a great "breakout" candidate, considering he was tremendous last season, but with his early-season struggles, I feel like he fits the category.

The easiest reason to believe Herrera will soon break out is the fact that his expected batting average, per Baseball Savant, is .293, which is over 100 points higher than his actual batting average. His xwOBA and xSLG are both much better than his actual numbers, too.

Herrera has been very patient this season, but he might be too patient. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in whiff rate, the 81st percentile in strikeout rate, and the 79th percentile in out-of-zone swing percentage. All of these combine to mean he's not striking out a lot, but he's walking a lot, which is represented in his on-base percentage near .400. But he also holds a 37.9 percent swing rate, which is need the bottom of the league, as well as a 56.8 percent zone swing rate, which also ranks near the bottom of the league.

If Herrera can begin pairing his patience out of the zone with increased in-zone aggression, we could see the next star slugger break out alongside the aforementioned Walker.

This article first appeared on St. Louis Cardinals on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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