Carmen Mlodzinski the Starter? Pirates Give Him Another Shot

Carmen Mlodzinski, Starting Pitcher (Again)

Mlodzinski was granted a starting pitching role at the beginning of last season, but it was disastrous. Over nine starts and 39 2/3 innings, Mlodzinski owned a 5.67 ERA, 4.35 FIP, and 1.61 WHIP. While he had a strong 6.7% walk rate and a respectable 1.13 HR/9 ratio, he only struck out 15.6% of batters. The right-hander also had a solid 7.9% barrel rate. He was demoted to Triple-A halfway through May and came back up about a month later in June, returning as a multi-inning/opener type pitcher.

From this point on, Mlodzinski was outright dominant. He worked to the tune of a 2.12 ERA, 2.65 FIP, and 1.10 WHIP in 59 2/3 IP, and continued to limit walks with a 6.3% BB%. On the plus side, K% skyrocketed to 25.5%. He avoided quality contact as well. Mlodzinski held opposing batters to just a 0.41 HR/9 and a microscopic 4.4% barrel percentage. His Stuff+ went from 100 as a starter in April and May to 107 after moving back into the bullpen.

Mlodzinski acknowledges the importance of facing the order a second time. This is where he struggled the most, and why he was booted from the Pirates’ rotation. Last year, he owned a 1.77 ERA, and opponents hit just .226/.284/.310 with a .266 wOBA the first time they faced Mlodzinski. However, things quickly went south when Mlodzinski faced batters a second time. That resulted in a devastating 7.77 ERA, and .358/.377/.587 opponent triple-slash.

How Will Mlodzinski Make Things Different?

It will come down to his newest pitch, his splitter, as Mackey emphasized in his article. Despite adding it to his arsenal just last season, it was one of the most effective splitters in baseball. It held opponents to just a .235 BA and .279 SLG%. Mlodzinski’s splitter induced an awe-inspiring 43.1% whiff rate. When opponents did make contact, it was rarely ever good contact. They managed an 85 MPH exit velocity and a three-degree launch angle against it. Mlodzinski’s splitter had the eighth-highest whiff rate of any pitcher who threw one 200+ times last year.

The only pitch Mlodzinski used more than 20% of the time last year was his fastball. He used his splitter about as often as his sinker, which opponents had a sub-10% whiff rate against. Mlodzinski’s splitter was only utilized 1.1% more often than his slider. This was his least effective offering, with a .369 xwOBA and an opponent 91.5 exit velocity.

How Does This Shake Up the Pirates’ Rotation?

The Pirates’ one through four of their rotation are set between Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft, and Mitch Keller. Mlodzinski may have an inside track to the fifth spot because of his previous MLB experience, compared to Hunter Barco and Thomas Harrington. However, having both Barco and Harrington on hand gives the Pirates a backup plan in the event Mlodzinski’s second go as a starter fails.

Getting through the order a second time will be the biggest hurdle for Mlodzinski to overcome. However, it’s been a year since his last attempt to become a starter. The right-hander has seemed to learn a lot from his first experience starting games last year. Hopefully, he takes that leap forward and can secure the back of the Pirates’ rotation.