Chad Green by the numbers: How the home runs have impacted the Blue Jays reliever in 2025

This season, Green has allowed seven round-trippers, which accounts for 41% of the hits he’s allowed this season. While his walks have been kept in control, considering all eight of his earned runs have come via a home run, the FIP is going to be elevated as well as his HR/9, which stands at a 3.0 mark.

Also not benefiting Green this season is the hard contact he is allowing, with his average exit velocity (94.1%) sitting in the first percentile, as well as his barrel% (19.6%) and his hard-hit% (57.1%). He ranks in the 17th percentile in pitching run value (-4), and that’s because his slider and fastball both sit below the zero threshold, and both have xSLG’s above .500.

Outcome wise, his slider is holding a better value at a .161 average compared to the fastball (.256) but the xBA on the pitch is higher than his fastball (.258 vs. 236), meaning the fastball is a stronger offering – which is validated by it’s higher whiff% and putaway% values in comparison with just a +27 pitch difference. His slider has been hit five times, and four of those hits have been driven over the wall, compared to his 11 hits against the fastball, where only three have been tagged for a home run. His sinker (as noted in statcast) was hit against in its lone appearance, however, this likely was a fastball.

So what does this mean at the end of the day? Overall, opposing batters are seeing his two offerings, and when they connect, they drive them hard and a long way.

He’s still finding success on the mound, evident by the traditional stats such as his 1.065 WHIP and 3.48 ERA while striking out 19 batters and holding opponents to a .350 OPS in RISP situations (11 at-bats, just one hit allowed) but some cracks under the surface shouldn’t be ignored at the end of the day.

The seven homers are the most allowed by a relief pitcher this season (heading into last night), and while he’s limited the damage to just eight earned runs, there is a chance that this trend could increase if he continues to allow the hard contact while mixing in some walks and additional hits to put runners on, which has only happened to him once this season (he walked a batter, then gave up a home run). Green has also allowed some runs to the plate when inheriting a situation, which was the two runs on Opening Day when he took over for Jacob Barnes (those went credited to him) and allowed an immediate home run to Cedric Mullins (scoring Tyler O’Neill and Ryan Mountcastle); so most of his homers haven’t impacted other hurlers at the end of the day.

It’s a curious case for the veteran right-hander, as Green’s statline metrics read that he is doing fine, but the FIP and hard-hit numbers suggest a different story. Regardless, manager John Schneider does consider Green to be a name to tackle those high-leverage situations when Garcia and Hoffman aren’t available and will continue to do so moving forward.

It will be interesting to see if he can reel in the home runs, as this stat is trending in the wrong direction, even if the hits and walks are being limited in unison. He’s a veteran arm that will continue to work on as the season progresses, but this is somewhat newer territory for him, as the second-highest HR/9 total of his career was back in his rookie campaign in 2016 when he was still starting, allowing 12 home runs through 45 2/3 innings.