Chicago Cubs exec possibly tips hand at GM meetings regarding Shota Imanaga ploy

The move was of multiple possible benefit to Chicago. First, it guaranteed them draft pick compensation should Imanaga be signed by another team. Second, it made the 2024 Rookie of the Year candidate a somewhat less attractive free agent target, thereby facilitating a possible return to the Cubs on a more club-favorable contract. Finally, if all else failed and Imanaga signed elsewhere, the Cubs would be pruning a good chunk of their payroll and (hopefully) putting that money towards the acquisition of a front-of-rotation starter.

Imanaga’s situation, however, is not as win-win as the Cubs’.

The 32-year-old is coming off a rough 2025, where a hamstring injury hobbled the first half of the season and inconsistency (via the long ball) plagued the second half. His bad September (6.51 ERA) would spill over to the playoffs, where he posted an 8.10 ERA in two starts before falling completely outside the circle of confidence of manager Craig Counsell.

The feeling is that Imanaga may have some trouble getting a multi-year contract from another team as his performance trends deeply downward and the feeling begins to emerge that the league may have caught up with the tricky southpaw.

The value of Shota Imanaga

Still, there’s value in Imanaga. He IS just one year removed from being an elite-tier starting pitcher and he did post a 3.73 ERA last season despite his propensity for giving up home runs. Even at his very worst, he’s a thoughtful, cerebral competitor who has shown the ability to adjust his way out of trouble.

Although the Cubs balked at the 3-year extension, which would’ve given him just over $19 million a year, they’re still talking as though they would have him back. The feeling may be that his contractual worth is significantly lower as he settles into a more realistic spot as a middle-of-rotation or back-of-rotation starter.

“We obviously value Shota a ton,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told the Marquee Sports Network at this week’s GM meetings in Las Vegas. “I think he was amazing for us as a pitcher, as a teammate and, you know, I don’t want to close that door completely by any stretch. But ultimately, we didn’t think that the club option was the right value, he didn’t think that the player option was the right value and, you know, that happen

“Clearly, we made him a qualifying offer and there’s nothing that prohibits us from still talking to him. So, I don’t want to close that door, but obviously, like I said, the way that we valued the club option, the way he valued the player option, [we] obviously we didn’t meet up there.”

A reunion is still very possible

The thought among many analysts is that Hoyer and the Cubs are gambling on Imanaga eventually coming back to the table where both sides can hammer out a more team-friendly deal, perhaps one for just two years sporting a lower base pay, but with incentives beefing up the pitcher’s potential earnings.

“You want to make sure nothing is lost in translation,” Hoyer told The Athletic. “But it’s a complicated structure. And with that structure, ultimately, we felt like it wasn’t the right thing to do to pick up the club option. He very quickly felt like it wasn’t the right thing to do with the player option. There’s no hard feelings on either side.

“We just move forward. We each had a specific number, and I think he understands that. My dialogue with them has been really good. Bad blood or anything like that, that’s not something I worry about.”

Jon Heyman, MLB insider for the New York Post, is reporting that Imanaga “is expected to decline the [Cubs’] $22M qualifying offer.” If accurate, this wouldn’t be a major surprise and it also wouldn’t necessarily eliminate the possibility of a reunion with the Cubs.

Imanaga has until November 18 to decide on Chicago’s qualifying offer.