Chicago Cubs get bottom-barrel ranking among playoff teams in one key category

MLB analyst Eno Sarris, in a recent piece for The Athletic, spotlighted one area of concern for the Cubs that may eventually be their downfall. In assessing the projected top 3 starters of all presumed playoff teams, Sarris ranks the Cubs a lowly no. 10 among the 12 teams.

Per Sarris:

“The projections say the Cubs should be last on this list. The Cubs’ top trio of Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd have the second-best ERA to date of any playoff trio. A bit of a conundrum.

ERA is not predictive, so this ranking hews closer to those projected numbers than the ones the Cubs’ starters have put up so far this year. We care more about what they will do than what they have done, after all. So why aren’t they last? Only a handful of playoff teams have seen Horton, who throws a unique fastball that could defy projections. The rookie seems to be coming into his own. Their X-factor.”

The rotation question marks

That’s a pretty harsh assessment, but it’s hard to argue with it, especially considering the insecurity the team is facing when it comes to their playoff rotation.

Matthew Boyd, who performed his way to ace status after Chicago’s offseason gamble on signing him to a 2-year contract, has been stellar up until recently. As of this writing, Boyd has posted a dismal 5.09 ERA over his last 7 outings. His 2.94 ERA this season is deceiving given his recent form and it would be crazy to discard fatigue as a possible cause for his decline. Suffering through Tommy John surgery and assorted other injuries over the last several seasons, Boyd hadn’t pitched over 100 innings in a season since 2019. Could further fatigue or even injury be in his immediate future?

Shota Imanaga should have the freshest arm of the rotation, given that he missed about seven weeks earlier in the season with a hamstring issue. He also has ace-level acumen. But he’s never pitched in an MLB postseason game before.

Cade Horton has been an absolute revelation this season after the injury to Imanaga forced a call-up from the minors much earlier than expected. Except for a couple of hiccups along the way, the 23-year-old has shined, posting a 2.78 ERA for the season so far. His 1.23 ERA since July 3 may end up winning him a Rookie of the Year honor.

But with 132.2 innings logged, between the minors and the majors, so far this season, he’s far surpassed any previous innings tally. Combining the workload with his recent history of injury, Horton presents a lot of question marks from here until the postseason. Manager Craig Counsell is already monitoring his workload and has him working under a loose pitch count.

Close your eyes and cross your fingers

The Cubs will also have Jameson Taillon, Colin Rea, and Javier Assad to throw into the playoff rotation mix if necessary. Trade deadline acquisition Michael Soroka will also be a wild card in this equation if/when he gets healthy enough to take the mound.

But, overall, Sarris’ ranking rings true-ish. There’s just a lot of “close your eyes and cross your fingers” when it comes to the Cubs starting pitching the rest of the way.