Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres: Who Has The Edge In Each Position?

Despite projected starter Miguel Amaya's season being derailed by injuries — he was limited to 28 games — the Cubs received strong production from their backstops this year, ranking 11th in catcher OPS. The main reason is Carson Kelly, who had the busiest and best season of his career with 17 home runs and a 119 OPS+. Reese McGuire was solid for a backup after joining the team due to Amaya's oblique and ankle injuries.

The Padres have Elias Diaz and Freddy Fermin as their two catchers, the latter of whom has provided a big lift after a midseason trade from the Kansas City Royals. He has not hit well with San Diego, but he has given the Padres stability behind the plate and allowed them to move on from Martin Maldonado.

Edge: Cubs

First base

Michael Busch had a breakout year at the plate for Chicago, building on his strong first season as a Cub and finishing with 34 homers and an OPS+ of 147. Left-handed power does not always play well at Wrigley, making Busch's numbers even more impressive.

He still gets the occasional day off against left-handers, with veteran Justin Turner typically filling in, but his defense has improved considering first base was not the position the Los Angeles Dodgers drafted him to play.

San Diego first baseman Luis Arraez is one of Major League Baseball's most unique and polarizing players. His bat-to-ball skills are among the league's best and he has three batting titles to his name, leading the NL with 181 hits this year. But he rarely walks, has very little home run power and grades poorly with his defense.

The Padres also added Ryan O'Hearn at the trade deadline from the Baltimore Orioles, and he and Arraez have often been in the lineup together, with one of them at designated hitter. O'Hearn has been the primary first baseman in September, and he has given San Diego's offense an undeniable lift. Still, the home team gets the edge here.

Edge: Cubs

Second base

The Cubs' Nico Hoerner fell short in his bid for a .300 batting average, but he still finished with 6.1 WAR (via Baseball Reference), stole 29 bases and was the second-best at his position defensively by Statcast Outs Above Average. He is a fan favorite thanks to his calm demeanor, high baseball IQ and propensity to deliver in high-leverage situations.

Jake Cronenworth had another strong year for the Padres, moving back to second base after spending most of 2023 and 2024 at first. He had a 108 OPS+ and 20 doubles, but is a league-average defender whose power took a step back this year.

Edge: Cubs

Shortstop

Dansby Swanson has been as consistent as it gets in his three seasons in Chicago, playing just about every day and providing plus defense at a premium position. He also hit 24 home runs this year and is one of MLB's top baserunners, going 20-for-23 on stolen base attempts and always hustling on infield grounders.

Xander Bogaerts has not lived up to the 11-year, $280 million deal he signed with San Diego prior to the 2023 season — the same offseason the Cubs signed Swanson. He did hit 30 doubles this year and rebounded from a slow start with much better numbers in July and August before missing four weeks with a fractured left foot. The ceiling remains high for Bogaerts, but this season fell below his standards.

Edge: Cubs

Third base

This was the biggest question mark in the Cubs' lineup for much of the year, but rookie Matt Shaw solidified his hold on the hot corner with a torrid stretch to start the second half. He has since cooled off, but his defense has remained strong, as has his speed.

Manny Machado is still one of the best all-around players in baseball and seems to have a good chance to reach the Hall of Fame. He has been a mainstay in San Diego since 2019, and while this was far from his best season, he still hit 27 homers and 33 doubles and drove in 95 runs. He's one of the faces of this franchise, and for good reason.

Edge: Padres

Outfield/Designated hitter

The Cubs were set up nicely for most of the year with Ian Happ in left, Pete Crow-Armstrong in center and Kyle Tucker in right. But Tucker missed most of September due to a calf injury, with prospects Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara getting some playing time and Seiya Suzuki returning to the outfield after primarily serving as the designated hitter.

Still, Chicago is mostly healthy now, and Crow-Armstrong and Suzuki had career years while Happ had a typical above-average season. Tucker started the year hot and rebounded from a career-worst slump before injuring his calf in early September. Happ and Crow-Armstrong are candidates for Gold Gloves, with Crow-Armstrong also among the league's best baserunners.

Fernando Tatis Jr. had another typical Fernando Tatis Jr. season for the Padres, posting a 125 OPS+ and turning himself into an outstanding defensive outfielder despite originally being a shortstop. Jackson Merrill followed up his fantastic rookie season with another strong year and has a 1.059 OPS in his last 19 games.

Ramon Laureano is still out with a finger injury, forcing designated hitter Gavin Sheets into a starting spot in left field. Sheets had the best year of his career after coming over from the Chicago White Sox, with 28 doubles and 19 home runs.

Edge: Even

Starting pitching

Cade Horton's injury is a huge blow for the Cubs, who will start veteran left-hander Matthew Boyd in Game 1. Boyd threw 179 2/3 innings in the regular season, by far his most since 2019, and showed signs of wearing down after pitching brilliantly through July. Nearly every other Cubs starter missed time with injuries, though Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad and Colin Rea are all available now.

Imanaga is a high-strikeout, low-walk lefty, but has trouble keeping the ball in the park. Taillon also gives up more home runs than Chicago would like but is effective when the ball stays in play. The Cubs' starters helped the team stay afloat in the second half when the offense struggled, but it's hard to tell which version of these pitchers will show up on any given day.

The Padres will start ace Nick Pivetta in Game 1 and former Cubs prospect Dylan Cease in Game 2. Pivetta was 13-5 with a 2.87 ERA in 181 2/3 innings, with 190 strikeouts against just 50 walks. Cease had an up-and-down year but has been better lately, while Randy Vazquez and Michael King have been good in smaller sample sizes.

Edge: Even

Bullpen

Chicago's bullpen has performed well for a patchwork unit, getting a huge year from Brad Keller and seeing Daniel Palencia emerge as the closer for most of the year. Lefties Caleb Theilbar and Drew Pomeranz were both impressive on the plus side of 35 years old, while Andrew Kittredge and Taylor Rogers helped add depth at the trade deadline.

San Diego, simply put, has the best bullpen in MLB with a 3.06 ERA. From closer Robert Suarez to fireballer Mason Miller to former Cub Jeremiah Estrada to Adrian Morejon, the Padres can shorten the game if they have the lead after the fifth inning. The Cubs will have to jump on San Diego's starters to give themselves the best chance to move on.

Edge: Padres