Christian Walker Near Miss Exposes D-backs Depth Issue

The Diamondbacks have had several aches and pains show up early in spring, and Thursday they received a scare with one of their most important players.  Slugging Gold Glove first baseman Christian Walker was hit on the right hand by a pitch in Cactus League action against the Giants. Walker was immediately removed from the game.  Fortunately x-rays were negative and Walker was diagnosed with a bone contusion on the back of his right hand. Walker had a an MRI just to confirm the diagnosis, and that came back showing no break as well. He was seen Friday taking ground balls off a machine, but was not throwing and cannot yet swing a bat. Torey Lovullo said Friday night that Walker is officially day to day.

Bullet Dodged. For now. 

What has been laid bare by this episode is that any prolonged absence from Walker would be a major problem for the D-backs. His impending free agency at the end of 2024 is another dilemma for the team to deal with. To be clear, there is no replacing Walker's glove or bat. He is the best defensive first baseman in major league baseball. Winner of two consecutive Gold Gloves, his prowess dates back to 2019. Since that season Walker has recorded 45 outs above average, and 34 runs prevented according to statcast-based metrics at Baseball Savant's website.  The next closest first baseman is former Diamondback Paul Goldschmidt with 14 OAA and 11 runs prevented. 

Walker has also emerged as the team's primary power threat, smashing 69 homers and driving in 197 runs over the last two seasons.  His .817 OPS, or 124 OPS+ is about 24% better than the league average.  It's all totaled 9 WAR  (Wins Above Replacement) over the last two seasons. Simply put, Walker is irreplaceable, and there are no options on the  MLB roster or in the minors that are likely to come close to filling the void should Walker ever  miss significant time. Nonetheless, his injury forced us to examine the D-backs options more closely, as threadbare as they are.  

Primary Options:

Torey Lovullo said as he was thinking things through Thursday and Friday morning, these are the primary options he would consider:

Pavin Smith is a capable defensive first baseman who has struggled to establish himself at the plate in 1,094 MLB plate appearances, posting a .698 OPS, or 91 OPS+. That batting line is dragged down by his numbers against left-hand pitching, but even against righties his slash line of .244/.329/.406, .735 OPS is average at best. 

Emmanuel Rivera has played some first base for the team, and as a right-handed bat, he could potentially be a platoon mate with Smith at first base.  Rivera has a career .684 OPS, or 89 OPS+. Against left-hand pitching, he's hit .273/.329/.410, .739 OPS

As can be seen above, a Smith/Rivera platoon at first base could be somewhat serviceable, but the best the team could reasonably project from that combination is somewhere between a .700-.740 OPS.   The MLB average OPS for first base was .775 last year. 

Emergency  Only Options: 

Lovullo said that the following options would be in an emergency situation only, and not something he has considered:

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (107 innings) and Joc Pederson (154 innings)  both have limited playing time at first base in their careers. Gurriel is a former infielder and would probably fare better on defense. Under the tutelage of outfield coach Dave McKay, he had a career year defensively in left field in 2023 however and the team might be loathe to give up those gains. 

Should the team ever need to utilize Gurriel or Pederson at first base for any extended period of time,  the cascade effect would be to open up more playing time for Randall Grichuk and perhaps Jake McCarthy in the outfield.  Grichuk has a career .761 OPS, or 101 OPS+  but is recovering from an injury of his own. He had surgery in January to remove bone spurs in his heel and has not yet been cleared for full baseball activities. Torey Lovullo said he would likely be limited to DH when he returns, at least for a while.  McCarthy, who is on the roster bubble, has a .711 OPS, and 98 OPS+ in  736 career PA. Coming off a down 2023 season McCarthy is trying to rebuild his value and standing in the organization. 

I asked Lovullo if he would ever consider moving Eugenio Suarez over to first, and he said he's never thought that way, and that Suarez, (who is also injured at the moment) will stay at third base.)

Minor League Options

Finally, there are two minor league first basemen, Andres Chaparro and Ivan Melendez who both have prodigious power. Neither is considered ready to play in MLB yet, and they are well down the depth chart behind Smith and Rivera. In Melendez's case, strikeouts are a major issue that needs to be resolved in Triple-A before a call-up should be considered.  

Summary

As can be seen from the above analysis, there are no strong options behind Walker. Hopefully, he remains as durable as he's been in four of the last five years. He played in 157 games last year and 160 in 2022.

The current situation also brings into sharper focus the team's dilemma over Walker's impending free agency. 2024 is his final year of team control, and he is looking forward to testing the free-agent waters in 2025. The team may be considering an extension for Walker, but he will turn 34 years old before opening day 2025. It might not be easy for the organization and the player to agree on the length of any deal.