Cincinnati Reds Playoff Odds Released, May Surprise Fans

With baseball season right around the corner, FanGraphs released its latest projections and each team’s odds to win the division and the World Series.

Their projections for the Reds may surprise some fans.

• Reds to make playoffs: 19.4%
• Reds to win National League Central Division: 9.2%
• Reds to win the World Series: 0.5%

Their win projection for the Reds sits at 78.5.

These numbers all seem shockingly low for a team coming off an 83-win season in 2025. Their pitching staff has the potential to be among the best in all of Major League Baseball.

Their starting rotation, led by Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott, should be in the upper echelon of the league. The front office prioritized revamping the bullpen and brought back closer Emilio Pagan as well as added guys like Pierce Johnson, Brock Burke, and Caleb Ferguson.

Most importantly, ownership signed off on the organization going over their budget to sign slugger Eugenio Suarez to a one-year, $15 million deal. They also added Dane Myers and JJ Bleday, who aren't splashy names, but two outfielders who could have a big impact on the team.

It's hard to understand how they're projected to be so much worse than last year after the moves they've made in the offseason.

Here are the rest of the odds to win the NL Central:

• Chicago Cubs: 44.4%
• Milwaukee Brewers: 24%
• Pittsburgh Pirates: 18.9%
• Cincinnati Reds: 9.2%
• St. Louis Cardinals: 3.5%

It would be a huge disappointment if the Reds were to finish fourth in the NL Central.

You can see FanGraphs full projections here.